Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29089285›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2018

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

Stéphane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Valerie Delpech, Alison E Brown, O Noel Gill, Anna Tostevin, Christophe Fraser, Erik M Volz

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Stéphane Le VuDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the NIHR HPRU on Modeling Methodology, Imperial College London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: s.le-vu@imperial.ac.uk.
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
Valerie DelpechHIV and STI Department of Public Health England's Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, London, United Kingdom.
Alison E BrownHIV and STI Department of Public Health England's Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, London, United Kingdom.
O Noel GillHIV and STI Department of Public Health England's Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, London, United Kingdom.
Anna TostevinDepartment of Infection and Population Health and the NIHR HPRU in Blood Borne and Sexually Transmitted Infections, University College London, United Kingdom.
Christophe FraserLi Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford University, United Kingdom.
Erik M VolzDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the NIHR HPRU on Modeling Methodology, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Reconstructing HIV Epidemics from HIV PhylogeneticsR01AI087520 · NIAID · TRIAD NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC · PI Thomas K. Leitner · 2010 to 2026
$11.2M
Medical Research Council 164587Medical Research Council MR/M004236/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI087520
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCluster AnalysisDatabases, FactualHIV InfectionsHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPhylogenyReproducibility of ResultsRisk FactorsSexual and Gender MinoritiesCluster analysisComputer simulationHIV epidemiologyPhylodynamicsPhylogenetic analysis

Identifiers

PMID29089285
PMCPMC5910297

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.