ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2018
Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability.
Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Risk Prediction in Southern China: Time Series Study Integrating Web-Based Search and Epidemiological Surveillance Data.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Analysis of a SARIMA-XGBoost model for hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xinjiang, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Climate and human health: a review of publication trends in the International Journal of Biometeorology.International journal of biometeorology · 2023Review
- Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Exploring the influence of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease with an automatic machine learning prediction model.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2023Article
- Association between Meteorological Parameters and Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Mainland China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Iranian journal of public health · 2021Review
- An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal variations of lockdown effects in China.Communications biology · 2021Article
- Predictive study of tuberculosis incidence by time series method and Elman neural network in Kashgar, China.BMJ open · 2021Article
- How to improve infectious disease prediction by integrating environmental data: an application of a novel ensemble analysis strategy to predict HFMD.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Forecasting hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases using wavelet-based SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model.PloS one · 2021Article
- Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Prediction mapping of human leptospirosis using ANN, GWR, SVM and GLM approaches.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)
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