ArticleBMJ open2017
Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico).
Article in BMJ open, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Availability of secondary healthcare data for conducting pharmacoepidemiology studies in Mexico: a systematic review.Journal of comparative effectiveness research · 2026Pooled it
- Clinical and sociodemographic factors of diabetes mellitus among people living with HIV in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Aging with dual burdens: cross-national evidence on mortality among older Hispanic adults with diabetes and dementia.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026Article
- A dynamic microsimulation of health outcomes in Mexico's aging population.The Gerontologist · 2025Article
- Disease burden, lifetime healthcare cost and long-term intervention impact projections among older adults in Singapore.Nature aging · 2025Article
- Health Risk and the Value of Life.Journal of public economics · 2025Article
- Economic Disadvantage During Childhood, Obesity, and Diabetes Across Three Birth Cohorts of Older Mexicans.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2024Article
- A case study on the implementation of quality and comprehensive indicators set in routine diabetes care.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2024Article
- Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Projections of functional dependence among the late middle-aged and older population from 2018-2048 in China: a dynamic microsimulation.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Self-Reported Diabetes in Older Adults: A Comparison of Prevalence and Related Factors in the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2015, 2018, and 2021).Journal of diabetes research · 2024Article
- Differences in the Cognitive Function of Mexican Adults Aged 60 and Older with Self-Reported Diabetes in 2001 and 2018.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2023Article
- Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).HRB open research · 2022Article
- Health-care guidelines and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico: A case of health-inequalities.Health policy OPEN · 2021Article
- Educational differences in diabetes and diabetes self-management behaviours in WHO SAGE countries.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Regional and state-level patterns of type 2 diabetes prevalence in Mexico over the last three decades.Diabetes research and clinical practice · 2021Article
- Components of diabetes prevalence in Denmark 1996-2016 and future trends until 2030.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2020Article
- Cognitive Reserve and Executive Functions in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes.Journal of diabetes research · 2020Article
- Sex disparities in the epidemic of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: national and state level results based on the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990-2017.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2019Article
- Comparative Analysis of the Classification of Food Products in the Mexican Market According to Seven Different Nutrient Profiling Systems.Nutrients · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveDiabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes.
designA simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older.
participantsData from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. OUTCOME MEASURES: We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits.
resultsIn 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. DISCUSSION: Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.