Predictive value of dysregulation profile trajectories in childhood for symptoms of ADHD, anxiety and depression in late adolescence.

We examined whether there are certain dysregulation profile trajectories in childhood that may predict an elevated risk for mental disorders in later adolescence. Participants (N = 554) were drawn from a representative community sample of German children, 7-11 years old, who were followed over four measurement points (baseline, 1, 2 and 6 years later). Dysregulation profile, derived from the parent report of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, was measured at the first three measurement points, while symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anxiety and depression were assessed at the fourth measurement point. We used latent class growth analysis to investigate developmental trajectories in the development of the dysregulation profile. The predictive value of dysregulation profile trajectories for later ADHD, anxiety and depression was examined by linear regression. For descriptive comparison, the predictive value of a single measurement (baseline) was calculated. Dysregulation profile was a stable trait during childhood. Boys and girls had similar levels of dysregulation profile over time. Two developmental subgroups were identified, namely the low dysregulation profile and the high dysregulation profile trajectory. The group membership in the high dysregulation profile trajectory (n = 102) was best predictive of later ADHD, regardless of an individual's gender and age. It explained 11% of the behavioural variance. For anxiety this was 8.7% and for depression 5.6%, including some gender effects. The single-point measurement was less predictive. An enduring high dysregulation profile in childhood showed some predictive value for psychological functioning 4 years later. Hence, it might be helpful in the preventive monitoring of children at risk.