ReviewOpen biology2017
Predicting virus emergence amid evolutionary noise.
Review in Open biology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 97 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
97 citing papers in PubMed, 215 citations in OpenAlex.
- Research Participation Influences Willingness to Reduce Zoonotic Exposure in Uganda.EcoHealth · 2022Trial
- Emerging Viral Zoonoses: Epidemiology, Vaccination Strategies, and Implications for Global Public Health.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Contrasting geographic patterns of parasite and hantavirus diversity in the rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia, Cricetidae).PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Metaviromic analysis of Ixodes ticks in Northwestern Russia reveals high viral diversity and novel RNA virus lineages.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Distinct evolutionary patterns of endemic and emerging parvoviruses and the origin of a new pandemic virus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Viral emergence and pandemic preparedness in a One Health framework.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Article
- Virome diversity in small mammals from south China: Insights into virus evolution, transmission, and ecology.Virologica Sinica · 2025Article
- Article
- Review
- Small mammals in a biodiversity hotspot harbor viruses of emergence risk.National science review · 2025Article
- Decoding the virome reveals diverse novel viruses in tree shrews (Tupaia belangeri) in Yunnan Province.Virologica Sinica · 2025Article
- The importance of epistasis in the evolution of viral pathogens.Virus evolution · 2025Review
- Improving the reporting of metagenomic virome-scale data.Communications biology · 2024Article
- Controlling minor outbreaks is necessary to prepare for major pandemics.PLoS biology · 2024Article
- Investigation of RNA Viruses inViruses · 2024Article
- Identification of a novel ephemerovirus in a water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis [Linnaeus, 1758]).The Journal of veterinary medical science · 2024Article
- Zoonotic Paramyxoviruses: Evolution, Ecology, and Public Health Strategies in a Changing World.Viruses · 2024Review
- Virology-The next fifty years.Cell · 2024Article
- Article
37 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The study of virus disease emergence, whether it can be predicted and how it might be prevented, has become a major research topic in biomedicine. Here we show that efforts to predict disease emergence commonly conflate fundamentally different evolutionary and epidemiological time scales, and are likely to fail because of the enormous number of unsampled viruses that could conceivably emerge in humans. Although we know much about the patterns and processes of virus evolution on evolutionary time scales as depicted in family-scale phylogenetic trees, these data have little predictive power to reveal the short-term microevolutionary processes that underpin cross-species transmission and emergence. Truly understanding disease emergence therefore requires a new mechanistic and integrated view of the factors that allow or prevent viruses spreading in novel hosts. We present such a view, suggesting that both ecological and genetic aspects of virus emergence can be placed within a simple population genetic framework, which in turn highlights the importance of host population size and density in determining whether emergence will be successful. Despite this framework, we conclude that a more practical solution to preventing and containing the successful emergence of new diseases entails ongoing virological surveillance at the human-animal interface and regions of ecological disturbance.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.