ArticleMedicine2017
Predictive validity of the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator in geriatric patients undergoing lumbar surgery.
Article in Medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impact of CGA and Surgical Risk Calculator before elective cancer surgery on postoperative delirium in elderly patients.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026Observational
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- Prediction Tools in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review.Spine surgery and related research · 2025Review
- Prediction models for risk assessment of surgical site infection after spinal surgery: A systematic review.North American Spine Society journal · 2024Review
- Pushing the Limits of Minimally Invasive Spine Surgery-From Preoperative to Intraoperative to Postoperative Management.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Review
- Development of a Prediction Model for Significant Adverse Outcome After Spine Surgery.Global spine journal · 2024Article
- Development and multicentre validation of the FLEX score: personalised preoperative surgical risk prediction using attention-based ICD-10 and Current Procedural Terminology set embeddings.British journal of anaesthesia · 2024Article
- The Epidemiological Transition of Surgically Treated Proximal Hip Fractures in Austria over the Course of the Pandemic-Back to Normal or a New Normal?Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Utility of Surgical Risk Calculators in Spine Surgery in Patients Aged Over 80 Years: Analysis of SpineSage and ACS NSQIP.Global spine journal · 2023Article
- External Validation of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Calculator Utilizing a Single Institutional Experience for Adult Spinal Deformity Corrective Surgery.International journal of spine surgery · 2023Article
- Article
- Development and validation of a point-of-care clinical risk score to predict surgical site infection following open spinal fusion.North American Spine Society journal · 2023Article
- Assessing optimal methods for transferring machine learning models to low-volume and imbalanced clinical datasets: experiences from predicting outcomes of Danish trauma patients.Frontiers in digital health · 2023Article
- Preparing for participation in the centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' bundle care payment initiative-advanced for major bowel surgery.Perioperative medicine (London, England) · 2022Article
- External Validation of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator in Elderly Patients Undergoing General Surgery Operations.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- A scoping review of complication prediction models in spinal surgery: An analysis of model development, validation and impact.North American Spine Society journal · 2022Article
- Mortality and Epidemiological Changes in Proximal Hip Fractures in the Course of a Pandemic.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Guest Editorial: Predictive Analytics, Calculators and Cost Modeling in Spine Surgery.Global spine journal · 2021Article
- Analysis and Review of Automated Risk Calculators Used to Predict Postoperative Complications After Orthopedic Surgery.Current reviews in musculoskeletal medicine · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The risk calculator of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) has been shown to be useful in predicting postoperative complications. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the ACS-NSQIP calculator in geriatric patients undergoing lumbar surgery.A total of 242 geriatric patients who underwent lumbar surgery between January 2014 and December 2016 were included. Preoperative clinical information was retrospectively reviewed and entered into the ACS-NSQIP calculator. The predictive value of the ACS-NSQIP model was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score (B), and receiver operating characteristics (ROC, also referred C-statistic) curve analysis. Additional risk factors were calculated as surgeon-adjusted risk including previous cardiac event and cerebrovascular disease.Preoperative risk factors including age (P = .004), functional independence (P = 0), American Society of Anesthesiologists class (ASA class, P = 0), dyspnea (P = 0), dialysis (P = .049), previous cardiac event (P = .001), and history of cerebrovascular disease (P = 0) were significantly associated with a greater incidence of postoperative complications. Observed and predicted incidence of postoperative complications was 43.8% and 13.7% (±5.9%) (P < .01), respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated adequate predictive accuracy of the ACS-NSQIP model for all complications. However, Brier score showed that the ACS-NSQIP model could not accurately predict risk of all (B = 0.321) or serious (B = 0.241) complications, although it accurately predicted the risk of death (B = 0.0072); this was supported by ROC curve analysis. The ROC curve also showed that the model had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting renal failure and readmission.The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator is not an accurate tool for the prediction of postoperative complications in geriatric Chinese patients undergoing lumbar surgery.
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