Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29066781›Full record

ArticleNature communications2017

Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases.

Toph Allen, Kris A Murray, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Stephen S Morse, Carlo Rondinini, Moreno Di Marco, Nathan Breit, Kevin J Olival, Peter Daszak

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 512 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
512citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

512 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Mapping the Global Distribution ofTransboundary and emerging diseases · 2025
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  9. Article
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  13. Ecological nuance and comparative parasitology of sympatric canids in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone.International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2026
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452 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Toph AllenEcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA.
Kris A MurrayDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
Carlos Zambrana-TorrelioEcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5614-7496
Stephen S MorseMailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St #1504, New York, NY, 10032, USA.
Carlo RondininiGlobal Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale dell'Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy.
Moreno Di MarcoARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biosiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.
Nathan BreitEcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA.
Kevin J OlivalEcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA.
Peter DaszakEcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA. daszak@ecohealthalliance.org.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.

Indexed as

Animals, WildAnimalsArea Under CurveBiodiversityCommunicable Diseases, EmergingDemographyDisease ReservoirsForestsGeographyGlobal HealthHumansModels, TheoreticalRegression AnalysisRiskTropical ClimateZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID29066781
PMCPMC5654761

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.