Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29065935›Full record

ArticlePsychological medicine2018

Declines in prevalence of adolescent substance use disorders and delinquent behaviors in the USA: a unitary trend?

R A Grucza, R F Krueger, Arpana Agrawal, A D Plunk, M J Krauss, J Bongu, P A Cavazos-Rehg, L J Bierut

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Psychological medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.1field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. The social determinants of mental health and disorder: evidence, prevention and recommendations.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2024
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. U.S. Trends in Adolescent Substance Use and Conduct Problems and Their Relation to Trends in Unstructured In-Person Socializing With Peers.The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2021
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. A Decline in Propensity Toward Risk Behaviors Among U.S. Adolescents.The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2019
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Changes in delinquency according to socioeconomic status among Finnish adolescents from 2000 to 2015.Scandinavian journal of child and adolescent psychiatry and psychology · 2019
    Review
  20. Moderators of Substance Use Disorder Treatment for Adolescents.Journal of clinical child and adolescent psychology : the official journal for the Society of Clinical Child and Adolescent Psychology, American Psychological Association, Division 53
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

R A GruczaDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
R F KruegerDepartment of Psychology,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,MN,USA.
Arpana AgrawalDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
A D PlunkDepartment of Pediatrics,Eastern Virginia Medical School,Norfolk,VA,USA.
M J KraussDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
J BonguDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
P A Cavazos-RehgDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
L J BierutDepartment of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
Washington University in St. Louis · USEastern Virginia Medical School · USUniversity of Minnesota · US

Funding

CANNABIS AND TOBACCO INVOLVEMENT: A TWIN STUDYR01DA023668 · NIDA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI AGRAWAL, ARPANA · 2007 to 2016
$2.5M
CANNABIS, DEPRESSION AND SUICIDAL THOUGHTS AND BEHAVIORSR01DA040411 · NIDA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI AGRAWAL, ARPANA, GRUCZA, RICHARD A · 2015 to 2017
$1.1M
POLICY AS ENVIRONMENT : LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF LAWS RESTRICTING YOUTH SUBSTANCE USER01DA031288 · NIDA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI GRUCZA, RICHARD A · 2012 to 2015
$1.1M
DELINEATING THE ROLE OF GENETIC INFLUENCES ON CANNABIS INVOLVEMENTK02DA032573 · NIDA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI AGRAWAL, ARPANA · 2012 to 2021
$1.1M
SMOKING, SUICIDE AND MENTAL HEALTH: USING POLICY CHANGE TO PROBE CAUSALITYR01DA042195 · NIDA · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI GRUCZA, RICHARD A · 2016 to 2018
$676k
NIDA NIH HHS K02 DA032573NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA023668NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA031288NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA040411NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA042195
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDownward trends in a number of adolescent risk behaviors including violence, crime, and drug use have been observed in the USA in recent years. It is unknown whether these are separate trends or whether they might relate to a general reduction in propensity to engage in such behaviors. Our objectives were to quantify trends in substance use disorders (SUDs) and delinquent behaviors over the 2003-2014 period and to determine whether they might reflect a single trend in an Externalizing-like trait.

methodsWe analyzed data from 12 to 17 year old participants from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a representative survey of the household dwelling population of the USA, across the 2003-2014 period (N = 210 599). Outcomes included past-year prevalence of six categories of substance use disorder and six categories of delinquent behavior.

resultsTrend analysis suggested a net decline of 49% in mean number of SUDs and a 34% decline in delinquent behaviors over the 12-year period. Item Response Theory models were consistent with the interpretation that declines in each set of outcomes could be attributed to changes in mean levels of a latent, Externalizing-like trait.

conclusionsOur findings suggest that declines in SUDs and some delinquent behaviors reflect a single trend related to an Externalizing-like trait. Identifying the factors contributing to this trend may facilitate continued improvement across a spectrum of adolescent risk behaviors.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdolescent BehaviorAge DistributionChildFemaleForecastingHumansJuvenile DelinquencyLongitudinal StudiesMalePrevalenceRegression AnalysisSex DistributionSubstance-Related DisordersUnited StatesEpidemiologyjuvenile delinquencystructural modelssubstance use disordertrends

Identifiers

PMID29065935
PMCPMC6217939
OpenAlexW2765468520

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.