ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2017
Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: a retrospective study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 99 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review.JAMA cardiology · 2024Pooled it
- The interplay between climate change and ageing: A systematic review of health indicators.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Trial
- Climate Change and Epidemiology: How Will Environmental Stresses and the Climate Affect Population Health?Circulation. Population health and outcomes · 2026Article
- Drought and cognitive function in older adults: results from the Mexican health and aging study.Environment international · 2026Article
- Climate change effects in older people's health: A scoping review.Journal of advanced nursing · 2025Article
- Compound drought and heatwave extreme weather events: Mortality risk in individuals with chronic respiratory disease.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2025Article
- Article
- Long-term drought and risk of infant mortality in Africa: A cross-sectional study.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Implementation Lessons of a Water Insecurity Intervention During a Drought in Mexico.Annals of global health · 2025Article
- A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate.Nature climate change · 2024Article
- Existing Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Drought and Health Research.Current environmental health reports · 2024Review
- Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2024Article
- Homogenized gridded dataset for drought and hydrometeorological modeling for the continental United States.Scientific data · 2024Article
- Risk and attributable fraction estimation for the impact of exposure to compound drought and hot events on daily stroke admissions.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2024Article
- Strategies to strengthen a climate-resilient health system: a scoping review.Globalization and health · 2023Article
- The Association between Drought Exposure and Respiratory-Related Mortality in the United States from 2000 to 2018.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Extreme weather events and HIV: development of a conceptual framework through qualitative interviews with people with HIV impacted by the California wildfires and their clinicians.BMC public health · 2023Article
- The Interactive Effects between Drought and Air Pollutants on Children's Upper Respiratory Tract Infection: A Time-Series Analysis in Gansu, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundOccurrence, severity and geographic extent of droughts are anticipated to increase under climate change, but the health consequences of drought conditions are unknown. We estimate risks of cardiovascular and respiratory-related hospitalization and mortality associated with drought conditions for the western U.S. elderly population.
methodsFor counties in the western U.S. (N=618) and for the period 2000 to 2013, we use data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to identify: 1) full drought periods; 2) non-drought periods; and 3) worsening drought periods stratified by low- and high-severity. We use Medicare claims to calculate daily rates of cardiovascular admissions, respiratory admissions, and deaths among adults 65 years or older. Using a two-stage hierarchical model, we estimated the percentage change in health risks when comparing drought to non-drought period days controlling for daily weather and seasonal trends.
findingsOn average there were 2·1 million days and 0·6 million days classified as non-drought periods and drought periods, respectively. Compared to non-drought periods, respiratory admissions significantly decreased by -1·99% (95% posterior interval (PI): -3·56, -0·38) during the full drought period, but not during worsening drought conditions. Mortality risk significantly increased by 1·55% (95% PI: 0·17, 2·95) during the high-severity worsening drought period, but not the full drought period. Cardiovascular admissions did not differ significantly during either drought or worsening drought periods. In counties where drought occurred less frequently, we found risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality to increase during worsening drought conditions. INTERPRETATIONS: Drought conditions increased risk of mortality during high-severity worsening drought, but decreased the risk of respiratory admissions during full drought periods among older adults. Counties that experience fewer drought events show larger risk for mortality and cardiovascular disease. This research describes an understudied environmental association with global health significance.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.