ArticlePLoS computational biology2017
Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Learning from pandemics: Feature selection and clustering for robust digital disease nowcasting.PloS one · 2026Article
- Increasing child vaccination coverage can reduce influenza cases across age groups: An agent-based modeling study.The Journal of infection · 2025Article
- Reduced Effectiveness of Repeat Influenza Vaccination: Distinguishing Among Within-Season Waning, Recent Clinical Infection, and Subclinical Infection.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Article
- Viral respiratory infections in a rapidly changing climate: the need to prepare for the next pandemic.EBioMedicine · 2023Review
- Can a Two-Dose Influenza Vaccine Regimen Better Protect Older Adults? An Agent-Based Modeling Study.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Environmental factors and mobility predict COVID-19 seasonality in the Netherlands.Environmental research · 2022Article
- Cross-reactive immunity potentially drives global oscillation and opposed alternation patterns of seasonal influenza A viruses.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections.PNAS nexus · 2022Article
- Timing of exposure is critical in a highly sensitive model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.PLoS pathogens · 2022Article
- Comparable seasonal pattern for COVID-19 and flu-like illnesses.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- Does airborne pollen influence COVID-19 outbreak?Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Stochastic models of infectious diseases in a periodic environment with application to cholera epidemics.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
- Transforming public health using value lens and extended partner networks.Learning health systems · 2021Article
- Coupling the circadian rhythms of population movement and the immune system in infectious disease modeling.PloS one · 2020Article
- Article
- Dynamic Perspectives on the Search for a Universal Influenza Vaccine.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveillance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.