A novel model to predict positive prostate biopsy based on serum androgen level.

Circulating levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and testosterone are widely used for the detection of prostate cancer prior to prostate biopsy; however, both remain controversial. Effective screening strategies based on quantitative factors could help avoid unnecessary biopsies. Here, we sought to clarify the predictive value of free testosterone (FT) vs total testosterone (TT) in identifying patients likely to have positive biopsies. This study aims to develop a novel model for predicting positive prostate biopsy based on serum androgen levels. This study included 253 Japanese patients who underwent prostate biopsy at our institution. TT and FT, %FT (=FT/TT), age, PSA, prostate volume (PV) and PSA density (PSAD = PSA/PV) were assessed for association with prostate biopsy findings. The following results were obtained. Of 253 patients, 145 (57.3%) had positive biopsies. Compared to the negative biopsy group, the positive biopsy group demonstrated higher age, PSA and PSAD but lower PV, FT and %FT by univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated PSA, PSAD and %FT were independent predictors of cancer detection. We developed a predictive model based on PSAD and %FT, for which the area under the curve was significantly greater than that of PSA (0.82 vs 0.66), a well-known predictor. Applying this analysis to the subset of patients with PSA <10 ng/mL yielded similar results. We confirmed the utility of this model in another independent cohort of 88 patients. In conclusion, lower %FT predicted a positive prostate biopsy. We constructed a predictive model based on %FT and PSAD, which are easily obtained prior to biopsy.