Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29031848›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2017

Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis.

David M Pigott, Aniruddha Deshpande, Ian Letourneau, Chloe Morozoff, Robert C Reiner, Moritz U G Kraemer, Shannon E Brent, Isaac I Bogoch, Kamran Khan, Molly H Biehl and 24 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed
7.9field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed, 108 citations in OpenAlex.

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  18. The First Molecular Detection ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2022
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5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

34 authors at 15 institutions in 7 countries.

David M PigottInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Aniruddha DeshpandeInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ian LetourneauInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Chloe MorozoffInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Robert C ReinerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Moritz U G KraemerDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Shannon E BrentLi Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Isaac I BogochDivisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Kamran KhanLi Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Molly H BiehlInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Roy BursteinInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lucas EarlInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nancy FullmanInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jane P MessinaSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; School of Interdisciplinary Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Adrian Q N MylneWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Catherine L MoyesBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Freya M ShearerBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Samir BhattDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Oliver J BradyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Peter W GethingBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Daniel J WeissBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Andrew J TatemWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm Sweden.
Luke CaleyThe Start Network, London, UK.
Tom De GroeveEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Luca VernacciniEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Nick GoldingQuantitative and Applied Ecology Group, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Peter HorbyCentre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jens H KuhnIntegrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick, Division of Clinical Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Frederick, MD, USA.
Sandra J LaneySJL Global Consulting, Seattle, WA, USA.
Edmond NgDirector's Office, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Peter PiotDirector's Office, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Osman SankohINDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana.
Christopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: sihay@uw.edu.
University of Oxford · GBInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · USUniversity of Washington · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBJoint Research Centre · ITSt. Michael's Hospital · CAHarvard University · USImperial College London · GBIndepth Network · GHNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases · USStart · GBToronto General Hospital · CAUniversity of Melbourne · AUUniversity of Southampton · GBUniversity of Warwick · GB

Funding

RESEARCH TRAINING IN PEDIATRIC EMERGENCY MEDICINET32HD040128 · NICHD · CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL BOSTON · PI Kenneth D. Mandl · 2001 to 2026
$5.0M
NIAID NIH HHS HHSN272200700016INICHD NIH HHS T32 HD040128Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPredicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.

methodsIn this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally.

findingsWe found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels.

interpretationOur analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support.

fundingPaul G Allen Family Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development.

Indexed as

PandemicsAfricaDisease OutbreaksEpidemicsHemorrhagic Fevers, ViralHumansRisk Assessment

Identifiers

PMID29031848
PMCPMC5735217
OpenAlexW2761694289

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.