Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29028958›Full record

ArticleJournal of Crohn's & colitis2018

Development of Clinical Prediction Models for Surgery and Complications in Crohn's Disease.

Leonardo Guizzetti, Guangyong Zou, Reena Khanna, Parambir S Dulai, William J Sandborn, Vipul Jairath, Brian G Feagan

Open access · bronzeAbstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Crohn's & colitis, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.8field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 57 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Efficacy of Advanced Therapies in Achieving Remission by Disease Location in Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2026
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  7. Case 21: A 29-Year-Old Man With Bloating and Borborygmus.Journal of Korean medical science · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Leonardo GuizzettiRobarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Guangyong ZouDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Reena KhannaDepartment of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Parambir S DulaiDivision of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
William J SandbornRobarts Clinical Trials Inc., University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Vipul JairathDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Brian G FeaganDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.
Western University · CAUniversity of California San Diego · US

Funding

Training Grant in GastroenterologyT32DK007202 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI GHOSH, PRADIPTA · 1985 to 2022
$7.7M
NIDDK NIH HHS T32 DK007202
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsCrohn's disease-related complications account for a substantial proportion of inflammatory bowel disease-associated health care expenditure. Identifying patients at risk for complications may allow for targeted use of early therapeutic interventions to offset this natural course. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications.

methodsUsing data from the Randomised Evaluation of an Algorithm for Crohn's Disease cluster-randomised clinical Trial [REACT], which involved 1898 patients from 40 community practices, separate prediction models were derived and internally validated for predicting Crohn's disease-related surgery and disease-related complications [defined as the first disease-related surgery, hospitalisation, or complication within 24 months]. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, decision curves, and net benefit analyses.

resultsThere were 130 [6.8%] disease-related surgeries and 504 [26.6%] complications during the 24-month follow-up period. Selected baseline predictors of surgery included age, gender, disease location, Harvey-Bradshaw Index [HBI] score, stool frequency, antimetabolite or 5-aminosalicylate use, and the presence of a fistula, abscess, or abdominal mass. Selected predictors of complications included those same factors for surgery, plus corticosteroid or anti-tumour necrosis factor use, but excluded 5-aminosalicylate use. Discrimination ability, as measured by validated c-statistics, was 0.70 and 0.62 for the surgery and complication models, respectively. Score charts and nomograms were developed to facilitate future risk score calculation.

conclusionsSeparate risk prediction models for Crohn's disease-related surgery and complications were developed using clinical trial data involving community gastroenterology practices. These models could be used to guide Crohn's disease management. External validation is warranted.

Indexed as

Logistic ModelsAbdominal AbscessAdrenal Cortex HormonesAdultAge FactorsAnti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-SteroidalCrohn DiseaseDefecationFemaleHumansIntestinal FistulaMaleMesalamineMiddle AgedMultivariate AnalysisNomogramsAdrenal Cortex HormonesAnti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-SteroidalMesalamineTumor Necrosis Factor-alphaclinical risk predictionClinical trialsprognostic model

Identifiers

PMID29028958
PMCPMC5881746
OpenAlexW2612423848

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.