ArticleClinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico2018
Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly.
Article in Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2019Pooled it
- Article
- The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adherence to Endocrine Therapy for Breast Cancer in Catalonia (Spain).Cancers · 2024Article
- How heavy is the medical expense burden among the older adults and what are the contributing factors? A literature review and problem-based analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Cancer diagnosis in Catalonia (Spain) after two years of COVID-19 pandemic: an incomplete recovery.ESMO open · 2022Article
- Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Trends in lung cancer incidence by age, sex and histology from 2012 to 2025 in Catalonia (Spain).Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDeveloping effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025.
methodsBayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution.
resultsBy 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% - 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% - 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174).
conclusionsThe increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.
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