ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2018
Incidence rate estimation, periodic testing and the limitations of the mid-point imputation approach.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers.
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Who cites it
53 citing papers in PubMed, 73 citations in OpenAlex.
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- A method for statistical analysis of repeated residential movements to link human mobility and HIV acquisition.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Facing the pandemic amidst mental health challenges: A longitudinal study of Black and Latino public housing residents.Journal of affective disorders · 2026Article
- Incidence of HIV and HCV Among People Who Inject Drugs in Montreal, Canada: Data From the HEPCO Longitudinal Cohort Study, 2011-2025.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2026Article
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- HIV-phyloTSI: subtype-independent estimation of time since HIV-1 infection for cross-sectional measures of population incidence using deep sequence data.BMC bioinformatics · 2025Article
- HIV incidence and adherence after pre-exposure prophylaxis initiation in key populations in Indonesia: Findings from a real-world pilot program 2021-2023.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection over two epidemic waves in Manaus, Brazil: A serological study of seven thousand blood donors.PloS one · 2025Article
- Traumatic brain injury and anger proneness: results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
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- Development of a Prediction Model for the Risk of Infection in Patients with Aplastic Anemia: Survival Analysis in Recurrent Events.Infection & chemotherapy · 2024Article
- Traumatic brain injury and cognitive change over 30 years among community-dwelling older adults.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
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- Posttraumatic Epilepsy and Dementia Risk.JAMA neurology · 2024Article
- Associations Between Head Injury and Subsequent Risk of Falls: Results From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.Neurology · 2023Article
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- Incidence, recurrence, and prevalence of bacterial vaginosis from acute to chronic HIV infection in a prospective cohort of women in South Africa.Annals of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among People Experiencing Homelessness in Toronto, Canada.JAMA network open · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Background: It is common to use the mid-point between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates as the date of the infection event. However, the accuracy of the mid-point method has yet to be systematically quantified for incidence studies once participants start to miss their scheduled test dates. Methods: We used a simulation-based approach to generate an infectious disease epidemic for an incidence cohort with a high (80-100%), moderate (60-79.9%), low (40-59.9%) and poor (30-39.9%) testing rate. Next, we imputed a mid-point and random-point value between the participant's latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates. We then compared the incidence rate derived from these imputed values with the true incidence rate generated from the simulation model. Results: The mid-point incidence rate estimates erroneously declined towards the end of the observation period once the testing rate dropped below 80%. This decline was in error of approximately 9%, 27% and 41% for a moderate, low and poor testing rate, respectively. The random-point method did not introduce any systematic bias in the incidence rate estimate, even for testing rates as low as 30%. Conclusions: The mid-point assumption of the infection date is unjustified and should not be used to calculate the incidence rate once participants start to miss the scheduled test dates. Under these conditions, we show an artefactual decline in the incidence rate towards the end of the observation period. Alternatively, the single random-point method is straightforward to implement and produces estimates very close to the true incidence rate.
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