ArticleDemography2017
A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality.
Article in Demography, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- A harmonized dataset of education- and age-specific fertility rates for DHS countries.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Observational Study Comparing Three Instruments in Malawi.Demography · 2026Observational
- Survival and life expectancy inequality by gender in Thai provinces: Trends from 2015 to 2023.PloS one · 2026Article
- Older adults life expectancy in China: Bayesian mortality estimation and spatially heterogeneous determinants.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Bayesian probabilistic projections of proportions with limited data: An application to subnational contraceptive method supply shares.PloS one · 2026Article
- Demographic Analysis of Mortality Changes Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan, 2020-2022.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Internal migration, health selection, and the salmon bias: A register-based study of Finland.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2025Article
- Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- Use of mortality tables by level of deprivation in the study of social inequalities in cancer survival.European journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Diversity-aware Population Models: Quantifying Associations between Socio-Spatial Factors and Cognitive Development in the ABCD Cohort.Research square · 2024Article
- Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Subnational estimates of life expectancy at birth in India: evidence from NFHS and SRS data.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Modeling County-Level Rare Disease Prevalence Using Bayesian Hierarchical Sampling Weighted Zero-Inflated Regression.Journal of data science : JDS · 2023Article
- Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison.International statistical review = Revue internationale de statistique · 2022Article
- Novel estimates reveal subnational heterogeneities in disease-relevant contact patterns in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Unequal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on life expectancy across urban areas in Chile: a cross-sectional demographic study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Heterogeneity in subnational mortality in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Belgian districts in 2020.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022Article
- Estimation of delay-adjusted all-cause excess mortality in the USA: March-December 2020.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Beyond standardized mortality ratios; some uses of smoothed age-specific mortality rates on small areas studies.International journal of health geographics · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Reliable subnational mortality estimates are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations among which the stochastic variation in death counts is relatively high, and thus the underlying mortality levels are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mortality at the subnational level. The model builds on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, which are constructed using principal components from a set of reference mortality curves. Information on mortality rates are pooled across geographic space and are smoothed over time. Testing of the model shows reasonable estimates and uncertainty levels when it is applied both to simulated data that mimic U.S. counties and to real data for French départements. The model estimates have direct applications to the study of subregional health patterns and disparities.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.