ArticleNature communications2017
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.
Article in Nature communications, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate Change Projected to Double the Richness and Abundance of Soilborne Phytopathogenic Fungi in Southern Maritime Antarctica.Global change biology · 2026Article
- An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- Capturing stochasticity properly is key to understanding the nuances of the Living Planet Index.Nature ecology & evolution · 2023Article
- Adélie penguins north and east of the 'Adélie gap' continue to thrive in the face of dramatic declines elsewhere in the Antarctic Peninsula region.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Difficulties in summing log-normal distributions for abundance and potential solutions.PloS one · 2023Review
- Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project: Database of abundance and distribution for the Adélie, chinstrap, gentoo, emperor, macaroni and king penguin south of 60 S.Biodiversity data journal · 2023Article
- Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories.Global change biology · 2022Article
- Emerging evidence of resource limitation in an Antarctic seabird metapopulation after 6 decades of sustained population growth.Oecologia · 2021Article
- Large-scale assessment of intra- and inter-annual breeding success using a remote camera network.Remote sensing in ecology and conservation · 2021Article
- A global population assessment of the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica).Scientific reports · 2020Article
- The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Foraging behavior links sea ice to breeding success in Antarctic penguins.Science advances · 2020Article
- Density dependence forces divergent population growth rates and alters occupancy patterns of a central place foraging Antarctic seabird.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Multi-modal survey of Adélie penguin mega-colonies reveals the Danger Islands as a seabird hotspot.Scientific reports · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.
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