ArticleBMC medicine2017
Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.
Article in BMC medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analysis of population immunity to poliovirus following cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Spatial and Genomic Data to Characterize Endemic Typhoid Transmission.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- New analytic approaches for analyzing and presenting polio surveillance data to supplement standard performance indicators.Vaccine: X · 2020Article
- Model selection for hybrid dynamical systems via sparse regression.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2019Article
- Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2019Article
- Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2019Article
- Models and analyses to understand threats to polio eradication.BMC medicine · 2017Article
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13 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources.
methodsUsing a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases.
resultsThe expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases.
conclusionsThe risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.
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