Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29017018›Full record

ArticlePalliative medicine2018

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Anna E Bone, Barbara Gomes, Simon N Etkind, Julia Verne, Fliss E M Murtagh, Catherine J Evans, Irene J Higginson

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Palliative medicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 125 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
125citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

125 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  6. The Experiences of Informal Carers during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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65 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Anna E Bone1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Barbara Gomes1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Simon N Etkind1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Julia Verne3 Public Health England, Bristol, UK.
Fliss E M Murtagh1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Catherine J Evans1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.
Irene J Higginson1 Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King's College London, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPopulation ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care.

aimTo project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales.

designPopulation-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales.

resultsAnnual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023.

conclusionTo sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.

Indexed as

AgingForecastingHealth Services Needs and DemandAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEnglandFemaleHome Care ServicesHospital MortalityHumansMaleMiddle AgedAgedforecastinghealth services need and demandmortalitypalliative care

Identifiers

PMID29017018
PMCPMC5788077

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.