ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005-2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Pooled it
- Socioeconomic Interventions for WHO's End TB Strategy Targets: Insights from SIR Modelling in Kazakhstan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Intrinsic mechanisms underlying urban-rural disparities in physical activity and their changes in China: evidence from China General Social Survey during 2010-2021.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Modelling tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Malaysia.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis using Caputo fractional derivative: a comparative analysis with real data.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Effect of population aging on pulmonary tuberculosis burden in Zhejiang Province, China: a population-based study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis in school outbreaks: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 nonlinear mathematical model by incorporating the environment and social distancing.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Studying the efficacy of isolation as a control strategy and elimination of tuberculosis in India: A mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Transmissibility of tuberculosis among students and non-students: an occupational-specific mathematical modelling.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- A dynamical map to describe COVID-19 epidemics.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Review
- Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
- Analysis of Clinical Characteristics of 556 Spinal Tuberculosis Patients in Two Tertiary Teaching Hospitals in Guangxi Province.BioMed research international · 2021Article
- Tuberculosis infection and epidemiological characteristics in Haidian District, Beijing, 2005-2018.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Determinants of isoniazid preventive therapy completion among people living with HIV attending care and treatment clinics from 2013 to 2017 in Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania. A cross-sectional analytical study.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Temporal trends analysis of tuberculosis morbidity in mainland China from 1997 to 2025 using a new SARIMA-NARNNX hybrid model.BMJ open · 2019Article
- The effect of media coverage on threshold dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model.Physica A · 2018Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005-2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R₀ of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R₀ of (1.7752, 1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R₀ in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group.
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