ArticleTobacco control2018
Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes.
Article in Tobacco control, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 99 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
99 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the impact of protonating acid combinations in e-cigarette liquids: a randomised, crossover study on nicotine pharmacokinetics.Scientific reports · 2023Trial
- The effectiveness of a motivational text-messaging program for smoking cessation after coronary angioplasty: a quasi-experimental study.BMC research notes · 2023Trial
- A pilot study to examine the acceptability and health effects of electronic cigarettes in HIV-positive smokers.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2020Trial
- Association of E-Cigarette Use With Smoking Cessation Among Smokers Who Plan to Quit After a Hospitalization: A Prospective Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2018Trial
- From Research Influencers to Substance Use Policymakers: Bibliometrics Demonstrate Translation From Research to Policy.Journal of studies on alcohol and drugs · 2026Article
- Machine Learning of Smoking Relapse: the Role of Racial Differences and E-Cigarette Vaping Characteristics on Former Smokers.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- The changing face of nicotine use in England: Age-specific annual trends, 2014 to 2024.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Article
- Mental health matters? An examination of how anxiety and depression influence the alcohol-e-cigarette use relationship.Addictive behaviors · 2026Article
- Investigating the population health impact of an oral tobacco-derived nicotine pouch product utilizing a three-product tobacco use population model.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Policy lessons from a vaping ban, Singapore.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025Article
- Patterns of heated tobacco product use and biochemically verified smoking status among customers of dedicated heated tobacco product stores.Internal and emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Evaluating Use Patterns of a Closed Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Among Adults in the United States Who Smoke Cigarettes Daily: 8-Week Actual Use Study.JMIR formative research · 2025Article
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- How cigarette excise tax pass-through to prices responds to the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs).Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Trends and prediction of incidence and mortality burden of larynx cancer in China and the US: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Vaping and socioeconomic inequalities in smoking cessation and relapse: a longitudinal analysis of the UK Household Longitudinal Study.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- Pleasure and Satisfaction as Predictors of Future Cigarette and E-cigarette Use: A Novel Two-Stage Modeling Approach.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Observational
- Switching from Cigarettes to Heated Tobacco Products in Japan-Potential Impact on Health Outcomes and Associated Health Care Costs.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling the population health impact of accurate and inaccurate perceptions of harm from nicotine.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
39 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionUS tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use ('vaping') in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.
methodsA Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.
findingsCompared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.
conclusionsThe tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.