ArticleDigestive diseases and sciences2017
A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C.
Article in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Combined detection of circulating tumor cells, α-fetoprotein heterogene-3 and α-fetoprotein in the early diagnosis of HCC for the prediction of efficacy, prognosis, recurrence after microwave ablation.Infectious agents and cancer · 2021Article
- Long-Term Liver Disease, Treatment, and Mortality Outcomes Among 17,000 Persons Diagnosed with Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Current Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study Status and Review of Findings.Infectious disease clinics of North America · 2018Review
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13 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundRisk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting.
aimDevelop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C.
methodsUsing data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk.
resultsOf 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87).
conclusionThis scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.
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