Avian influenza epidemiology in semi-intensive free ranging duck flocks of the Moyingyi Wetland in Bago East District, Myanmar.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 first entered Myanmar in 2006 in the Mandalay District. Several H5N1 outbreaks followed and the one of Bago East District (2007) required post outbreak surveillance in the at-risk domestic duck population of the Moyingyi Wetland. A field epidemiological study based on a randomised prospective stratified study with five surveys provided the serological evidence that the avian influenza H5 subtype circulates in the domestic duck population and spreads to almost all the newly housed (and negative) flocks in the time span of a seasonal production cycle. Virological investigation was negative. The survival analysis showed that the probability of seroconversion increased rapidly over the study period, without significant difference among different agro-ecosystems. The analysis suggests that viral spread in the new cycle could be limited if control measures were adopted at the time new flocks are housed. The study recommends that future surveillance schemes for ducks are designed in a way to get as much information as possible from serological results which should drive virological sampling to determined farms.