ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2017
Modeling of US Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Seroprevalence by Age and Sexual Behavior Indicates an Increasing Trend of HPV Infection Following the Sexual Revolution.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Might Oral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection in Healthy Individuals Explain Differences in HPV-Attributable Fractions in Oropharyngeal Cancer? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Seroprevalence of nine human papillomavirus types included in the nonavalent vaccine in unvaccinated women living in Puerto Rico: A population-based study.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026Article
- Human papillomavirus E7 inhibits immune responses in keratinocytes by activating HTRA1‑mediated mitophagy.International journal of molecular medicine · 2026Article
- Beyond Women's Health: Long-Term Human Papillomavirus-Related Cancer Trends in Norway.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Global, regional, and national epidemiology of cervical cancer in elderly women from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2035.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Anti-HPV18 Antibody Titers Preceding an Incident Cervical HPV18/45 Infection.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Age-related distribution of human papillomavirus genotypes in women with cervical squamous cell carcinoma from Linyi, China, 2015-2023.Virology journal · 2025Article
- Estimated Cancer Risk in Females Who Meet the Criteria to Exit Cervical Cancer Screening.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Population-level impact of switching to 1-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in high-income countries: examining uncertainties using mathematical modeling.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2024Article
- Understanding the high-risk human papillomavirus prevalence and associated factors in the European country with a high incidence of cervical cancer.European journal of public health · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2024Review
- Papillomaviruses and cancer: commonalities and differences in HPV carcinogenesis at different sites of the body.International journal of clinical oncology · 2023Review
- Impact of human papillomavirus vaccine on cervical cancer epidemic: Evidence from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The Vaginal Microbiome: IV. The Role of Vaginal Microbiome in Reproduction and in Gynecologic Cancers.Journal of lower genital tract disease · 2022Article
- Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of catch-up 9-valent HPV vaccination of individuals through age 45 years in the United States.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Importance of Lifetime Sexual History on the Prevalence of Genital Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Among Unvaccinated Adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys: Implications for Adult HPV Vaccination.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Rates of New Human Papillomavirus Detection and Loss of Detection in Middle-aged Women by Recent and Past Sexual Behavior.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Oncologic Outcomes Following Transoral Robotic Surgery for Human Papillomavirus-Associated Oropharyngeal Carcinoma in Older Patients.JAMA otolaryngology-- head & neck surgery · 2020Article
- Evolving Profile of HPV-Driven Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a National Cancer Institute in Italy: A 10-Year Retrospective Study.Microorganisms · 2020Article
- The microbiome and gynaecological cancer development, prevention and therapy.Nature reviews. Urology · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: The United States has experienced an increase in the incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers that are not screen-detectable. It has been hypothesized, but not directly demonstrated, that this is due to increasing HPV prevalence in the unvaccinated population. Methods: Female self-reported numbers of lifetime sex partners and HPV serology from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to develop mathematical models of sexual partner acquisition and antibody dynamics. Modeled trends in sexual behaviors were compared to incidence data for cervical adenocarcinoma, oropharyngeal cancer, and anal cancer. Results: The age-specific HPV seroprevalence data were best explained by a partner acquisition model that explicitly accounted for cohort-dependent changes in sexual behavior. Estimates of the mean time to loss of natural antibodies varied by model, ranging from 49 to 145 years. Inferred trends in sexual behavior over the past decades paralleled the increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers in the United States. Conclusions: The findings suggest that lower HPV seroprevalence in older US women primarily reflects cohort-specific differences in sexual behaviors, and is only marginally attributable to immune waning with age. Our results emphasize the importance of continuing surveillance of sexual behaviors, alongside vaccine status, to predict future disease burden.
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