ArticleBMC infectious diseases2017
Variation in loss of immunity shapes influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Biometric Strategies to Improve Vaccine Immunogenicity and Effectiveness.Biomimetics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of influenza viruses A (H3N2) and B/Victoria during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guangdong, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 disrupt the dynamic balance between influenza A virus and human immunity.Journal of medical virology · 2023Article
- National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2021-2022: A brief, late influenza epidemic.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Immunological heterogeneity informs estimation of the durability of vaccine protection.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Genomic epidemiology of seasonal influenza circulation in China during prolonged border closure from 2020 to 2021.Virus evolution · 2022Article
- Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Awareness, knowledge and attitude toward influenza vaccination in several population groups in China: A cross-sectional study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- [Health Technology Assessment (HTA) of the introduction of influenza vaccination for Italian children with Fluenz TetraJournal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2021Article
- Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Vaccinating children against influenza: overall cost-effective with potential for undesirable outcomes.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- The impact of behavioral interventions on co-infection dynamics: An exploration of the effects of home isolation.Journal of theoretical biology · 2019Article
- Characterising antibody kinetics from multiple influenza infection and vaccination events in ferrets.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- Risk of influenza infection with low vaccine effectiveness: the role of avoidance behaviour.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Clinical Expectations for Better Influenza Virus Vaccines-Perspectives from the Young Investigators' Point of View.Vaccines · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundProtective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. Currently, the variable nature of the duration of immunity has had little attention in analyses of the impact of vaccination, including cost-effectiveness studies.
methodsWe developed a range of mathematical transmission models to investigate the effect of variable duration of immunity on the size of seasonal epidemics. The models range from simple conceptual to more realistic, by distinguishing between infection- versus vaccination-induced immunity, by inclusion of primary vaccine failure, by assuming a leaky vaccine, and by the inclusion of age-dependent contact patterns.
resultsWe show that annual variation in the duration of immunity causes large variation in the size of epidemics, and affects the effectiveness of vaccination. Accumulation of susceptible individuals in one or more mild seasons results in a disproportionately large outbreak in a subsequent season. Importantly, variation in the duration of immunity increases the average infection attack rate when the vaccination coverage is around the outbreak threshold. Specifically, in a tailored age-stratified model with a realistic reproduction number (R
conclusionsThe models illustrate that variation in the duration of immunity impacts the long-term effectiveness of vaccination, and that vaccine effectiveness cannot be judged for each year in isolation. Our findings have implications for vaccination strategies that aim to maximize the vaccination coverage while extending the age range of persons eligible for vaccination.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.