Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28918191›Full record

ArticleGastroenterology2017

Development and Validation of a Chronic Pancreatitis Prognosis Score in 2 Independent Cohorts.

Georg Beyer, Ujjwal M Mahajan, Christoph Budde, Thomas J Bulla, Thomas Kohlmann, Louise Kuhlmann, Kerstin Schütte, Ali A Aghdassi, Eckhard Weber, F Ulrich Weiss and 4 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readValidation Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Gastroenterology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05733130 (Registro Italiano Pancreatite Cronica), which is not on this map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05733130 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Registro Italiano Pancreatite Cronica

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorAssociazione Italiana per lo Studio del PancreasRan2022 to 2027Enrolled1,500ConditionsChronic Pancreatitis
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Clinical Practice Guideline—Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2022
    Guideline
  2. Article
  3. Chronic and Idiopathic Pancreatitis-A Personalized Treatment Approach.United European gastroenterology journal · 2025
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Imaging of inflammatory disease of the pancreas.The British journal of radiology · 2021
    Review
  12. Article
  13. Turkish Gastroenterology Association, Pancreas Study Group, Chronic Pancreatitis Committee Consensus Report.The Turkish journal of gastroenterology : the official journal of Turkish Society of Gastroenterology · 2020
    Article
  14. Review
  15. Nutrition and Inflammatory Biomarkers in Chronic Pancreatitis Patients.Nutrition in clinical practice : official publication of the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition · 2019
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Georg BeyerDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany; Department of Medicine II, University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
Ujjwal M MahajanDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany; Department of Medicine II, University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
Christoph BuddeDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
Thomas J BullaDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
Thomas KohlmannInstitut für Community Medicine, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Germany.
Louise KuhlmannCentre for Pancreatic Diseases and Mech-Sense, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark and Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Kerstin SchütteDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, Otto-von-Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany.
Ali A AghdassiDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
Eckhard WeberDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
F Ulrich WeissDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
Asbjørn M DrewesCentre for Pancreatic Diseases and Mech-Sense, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark and Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Søren S OlesenCentre for Pancreatic Diseases and Mech-Sense, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark and Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
Markus M LerchDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany.
Julia MayerleDepartment of Medicine A, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-University Greifswald, Germany; Department of Medicine II, University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany. Electronic address: Julia.mayerle@med.uni-muenchen.de.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND &

aimsThe clinical course of chronic pancreatitis is unpredictable. There is no model to assess disease severity or progression or predict patient outcomes.

methodsWe performed a prospective study of 91 patients with chronic pancreatitis; data were collected from patients seen at academic centers in Europe from January 2011 through April 2014. We analyzed correlations between clinical, laboratory, and imaging data with number of hospital readmissions and in-hospital days over the next 12 months; the parameters with the highest degree of correlation were used to develop a 3-stage chronic pancreatitis prognosis score (COPPS). The predictive strength was validated in 129 independent subjects identified from 2 prospective databases.

resultsThe mean number of hospital admissions was 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-2.44) and 15.2 for hospital days (95% CI, 10.76-19.71) for the development cohort and 10.9 for the validation cohort (95% CI, 7.54-14.30) (P = .08). Based on bivariate correlations, pain (numeric rating scale), level of glycated hemoglobin A1c, level of C-reactive protein, body mass index, and platelet count were used to develop the COPPS system. The patients' median COPPS was 8.9 points (range, 5-14). The system accurately discriminated stages of disease severity (low to high): A (5-6 points), B (7-9), and C (10-15). In Pearson correlation analysis of the development cohort, the COPPS correlated with hospital admissions (0.39; P < .01) and number of hospital days (0.33; P < .01). The correlation was validated in the validation set (Pearson correlation values of 0.36 and 0.44; P < .01). COPPS did not correlate with results from the Cambridge classification system.

conclusionsWe developed and validated an easy to use dynamic multivariate scoring system, similar to the Child-Pugh-Score for liver cirrhosis. The COPPS allows objective monitoring of patients with chronic pancreatitis, determining risk for readmission to hospital and potential length of hospital stay.

Indexed as

Decision Support TechniquesAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBiomarkersBody Mass IndexChi-Square DistributionC-Reactive ProteinDisease ProgressionFemaleGermanyGlycated HemoglobinHealth StatusHumansLength of StayLinear ModelsBiomarkersC-Reactive ProteinGlycated Hemoglobinhemoglobin A1c protein, humanBMIChild-Pugh-Turcotte ScoreClinical Scoring SystemC-reactive ProteinPancreas

Identifiers

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.