ArticleBMC infectious diseases2017
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Treatment of HCV with direct-acting antivirals on reducing mortality related to extrahepatic manifestations: a large population-based study in British Columbia, Canada.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Physiomimetic In Vitro Human Models for Viral Infection in the Liver.Seminars in liver disease · 2023Review
- APRI and FIB-4 performance to assess liver fibrosis against predefined Fibroscan values in chronic hepatitis C virus infection.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2021Article
- Screening for hepatitis C in a general adult population in a low-prevalence area: the Tromsø study.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area.
methodsWe have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection.
resultsThe model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%.
conclusionThese projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.
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