ArticleBioMed research international2017
Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.
Article in BioMed research international, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Quantifying population-level sexual risk behavior through HSV-2 transmission dynamics in the United States, 1950-2020.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Vaccination as a strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis control: a global mathematical modeling analysis.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Does infection withSexually transmitted infections · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 6 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.
methodsAn individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.
resultsNonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) and 0.77 (0.68-0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52-0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01-0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.
conclusionsNonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.
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