Accuracy and predictive value of incarcerated adults' accounts of their self-harm histories: findings froman Australian prospective data linkage study.

backgroundSelf-harm is prevalent in prison populations and is a well-established risk factor for suicide. Researchers typically rely on self-report to measure self-harm, yet the accuracy and predictive value of self-report in prison populations is unclear. Using a large, representative sample of incarcerated men and women, we aimed to examine the level of agreement between self-reported self-harm history and historical medical records, and investigate the association between self-harm history and medically verified self-harm after release from prison.

methodsDuring confidential interviews with 1315 adults conducted within 6 weeks of expected release from 1 of 7 prisons in Queensland, Australia, participants were asked about the occurrence of lifetime self-harm. Responses were compared with prison medical records and linked both retrospectively and prospectively with ambulance, emergency department and hospital records to identify instances of medically verified self-harm. Follow-up interviews roughly 1, 3 and 6 months after release covered the same domains assessed in the baseline interview as well as self-reported criminal activity and contact with health care, social and criminal justice services since release.

resultsAgreement between self-reported and medically verified history of self-harm was poor, with 64 (37.6%) of 170 participants with a history of medically verified self-harm disclosing a history of self-harm at baseline. Participants with a medically verified history of self-harm were more likely than other participants to self-harm during the follow-up period. Compared to the unconfirmed-negative group, the true-positive (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.3-10.4]), false-negative (adjusted HR 4.0 [95% CI 2.2-6.7]) and unconfirmed-positive (adjusted HR 2.2 [95% CI 1.2-3.9]) groups were at increased risk for self-harm after release from prison.

interpretationSelf-reported history of self-harm should not be considered a sensitive indicator of prior self-harm or of future self-harm risk in incarcerated adults. To identify those who should be targeted for preventive strategies, triangulation of data from multiple verifiable sources should be performed whenever possible.