ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2017
Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 125 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Pooled it
- The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.PloS one · 2017Pooled it
- Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios.Environment international · 2025Article
- Rapid climate action is needed: comparing heat vs. COVID-19-related mortality.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Current and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to increasing temperature in Australia: a population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Coping with extreme heat: current exposure and implications for the future.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2024Review
- Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2023Article
- Estimating the Burden of Heat-Related Illness Morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina.GeoHealth · 2022Article
- Heat-Related Mortality in Germany From 1992 to 2021.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2022Article
- The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.Climate risk management · 2022Article
- Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2021Article
- Projection of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality by Integrating Population Adaptability Under Changing Climate - China, 2050s and 2080s.China CDC weekly · 2021Article
- City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Article
- Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications.Annual review of public health · 2021Review
- Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate.Nature communications · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMultiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios.
objectivesThis study had three aims:
methodsWe estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.
resultsThe range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.
conclusionsResearchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.