ArticlePloS one2017
Betting on the fastest horse: Using computer simulation to design a combination HIV intervention for future projects in Maharashtra, India.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03746457 (Alcohol and ART Adherence), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Alcohol and ART Adherence: Assessment, Intervention and Modeling in India
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0 citing papers in PubMed, 0 citations in OpenAlex.
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo inform the design of a combination intervention strategy targeting HIV-infected unhealthy alcohol users in Maharashtra, India, that could be tested in future randomized control trials.
methodsUsing probabilistic compartmental simulation modeling we compared intervention strategies targeting HIV-infected unhealthy alcohol users on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Maharashtra, India. We tested interventions targeting four behaviors (unhealthy alcohol consumption, risky sexual behavior, depression and antiretroviral adherence), in three formats (individual, group based, community) and two durations (shorter versus longer). A total of 5,386 possible intervention combinations were tested across the population for a 20-year time horizon and intervention bundles were narrowed down based on incremental cost-effectiveness analysis using a two-step probabilistic uncertainty analysis approach.
resultsTaking into account uncertainty in transmission variables and intervention cost and effectiveness values, we were able to reduce the number of possible intervention combinations to be used in a randomized control trial from over 5,000 to less than 5. The most robust intervention bundle identified was a combination of three interventions: long individual alcohol counseling; weekly Short Message Service (SMS) adherence counseling; and brief sex risk group counseling.
conclusionsIn addition to guiding policy design, simulation modeling of HIV transmission can be used as a preparatory step to trial design, offering a method for intervention pre-selection at a reduced cost.
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