Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28864947›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2017

Immortal time bias in pharmacoepidemiological studies on cancer patient survival: empirical illustration for beta-blocker use in four cancers with different prognosis.

Janick Weberpals, Lina Jansen, Myrthe P P van Herk-Sukel, Josephina G Kuiper, Mieke J Aarts, Pauline A J Vissers, Hermann Brenner

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Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Janick WeberpalsDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-0404-7394
Lina JansenDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
Myrthe P P van Herk-SukelPHARMO Institute for Drug Outcomes Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Josephina G KuiperPHARMO Institute for Drug Outcomes Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Mieke J AartsNetherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Pauline A J VissersNetherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Hermann BrennerDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany. h.brenner@dkfz.de.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Immortal time bias (ITB) is still seen frequently in medical literature. However, not much is known about this bias in the field of cancer (pharmaco-)epidemiology. In context of a hypothetical beneficial beta-blocker use among cancer patients, we aimed to demonstrate the magnitude of ITB among 9876 prostate, colorectal, lung and pancreatic cancer patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2011, which were selected from a database linkage of the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the PHARMO Database Network. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals from three ITB scenarios, defining exposure at a defined point after diagnosis (model 1), at any point after diagnosis (model 2) and as multiple exposures after diagnosis (model 3), were calculated to investigate the association between beta-blockers and cancer prognosis using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results were compared to unbiased estimates derived from the Mantel-Byar model. Ignoring ITB led to substantial smaller HRs for beta-blocker use proposing a significant protective association in all cancer types [e.g. HR 0.18 (0.07-0.43) for pancreatic cancer in model 1], whereas estimates derived from the Mantel-Byar model were mainly suggesting no association [e.g. HR 1.10 (0.84-1.44)]. The magnitude of bias was consistently larger among cancer types with worse prognosis [overall median HR differences between all scenarios in model 1 and Mantel-Byar model of 0.56 (prostate), 0.72 (colorectal), 0.77 (lung) and 0.85 (pancreas)]. In conclusion, ITB led to spurious beneficial associations of beta-blocker use among cancer patients. The magnitude of ITB depends on the duration of excluded immortal time and the prognosis of each cancer.

Indexed as

PrognosisAdrenergic beta-AntagonistsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBiasColorectal NeoplasmsFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasmsNetherlandsOutcome Assessment, Health CareAdrenergic beta-AntagonistsBeta-blockerCancerImmortal time biasPharmacoepidemiologyPopulation-basedSurvival

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.