Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28860558›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2017

Development and validation of a multivariate predictive model for rheumatoid arthritis mortality using a machine learning approach.

José M Lezcano-Valverde, Fernando Salazar, Leticia León, Esther Toledano, Juan A Jover, Benjamín Fernandez-Gutierrez, Eduardo Soudah, Isidoro González-Álvaro, Lydia Abasolo, Luis Rodriguez-Rodriguez

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Machine Learning in Rheumatic Diseases.Clinical reviews in allergy & immunology · 2021
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  17. Deep Learning Classification of Systemic Sclerosis Skin Using the MobileNetV2 Model.IEEE open journal of engineering in medicine and biology · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

José M Lezcano-ValverdeRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Fernando SalazarInternational Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), Madrid, Spain.
Leticia LeónRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Esther ToledanoRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Juan A JoverRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Benjamín Fernandez-GutierrezRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Eduardo SoudahInternational Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), Madrid, Spain.
Isidoro González-ÁlvaroRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínico Universitario de La Princesa, and IIS-IP, Madrid, Spain.
Lydia AbasoloRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain.
Luis Rodriguez-RodriguezRheumatology Department, Hospital Clínical San Carlos, and IdISSC, Madríd, Spain. lrrodriguez@salud.madrid.org.ORCID 0000-0002-2869-7861

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We developed and independently validated a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) mortality prediction model using the machine learning method Random Survival Forests (RSF). Two independent cohorts from Madrid (Spain) were used: the Hospital Clínico San Carlos RA Cohort (HCSC-RAC; training; 1,461 patients), and the Hospital Universitario de La Princesa Early Arthritis Register Longitudinal study (PEARL; validation; 280 patients). Demographic and clinical-related variables collected during the first two years after disease diagnosis were used. 148 and 21 patients from HCSC-RAC and PEARL died during a median follow-up time of 4.3 and 5.0 years, respectively. Age at diagnosis, median erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and number of hospital admissions showed the higher predictive capacity. Prediction errors in the training and validation cohorts were 0.187 and 0.233, respectively. A survival tree identified five mortality risk groups using the predicted ensemble mortality. After 1 and 7 years of follow-up, time-dependent specificity and sensitivity in the validation cohort were 0.79-0.80 and 0.43-0.48, respectively, using the cut-off value dividing the two lower risk categories. Calibration curves showed overestimation of the mortality risk in the validation cohort. In conclusion, we were able to develop a clinical prediction model for RA mortality using RSF, providing evidence for further work on external validation.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAgedArthritis, RheumatoidBlood SedimentationCohort StudiesFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalSpain

Identifiers

PMID28860558
PMCPMC5579234

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.