Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28841657›Full record

ArticlePloS one2017

A prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic screening population.

Sung Noh Hong, Hee Jung Son, Sun Kyu Choi, Dong Kyung Chang, Young-Ho Kim, Sin-Ho Jung, Poong-Lyul Rhee

Open access · goldAbstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 14% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Sung Noh HongDepartment of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Hee Jung SonDepartment of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Sun Kyu ChoiBiostatistics and Bioinformatics Center, Samsung Cancer Research Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
Dong Kyung ChangDepartment of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Young-Ho KimDepartment of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Sin-Ho JungBiostatistics and Bioinformatics Center, Samsung Cancer Research Institute, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
Poong-Lyul RheeDepartment of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8982-509X
Samsung Medical Center · KRDuke University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAn electronic medical record (EMR) database of a large unselected population who received screening colonoscopies may minimize sampling error and represent real-world estimates of risk for screening target lesions of advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRN). Our aim was to develop and validate a prediction model for assessing the probability of advanced CRN using a clinical data warehouse.

methodsA total of 49,450 screenees underwent their first colonoscopy as part of a health check-up from 2002 to 2012 at Samsung Medical Center, and the dataset was constructed by means of natural language processing from the computerized EMR system. The screenees were randomized into training and validation sets. The prediction model was developed using logistic regression. The model performance was validated and compared with existing models using area under receiver operating curve (AUC) analysis.

resultsIn the training set, age, gender, smoking duration, drinking frequency, and aspirin use were identified as independent predictors for advanced CRN (adjusted P < .01). The developed model had good discrimination (AUC = 0.726) and was internally validated (AUC = 0.713). The high-risk group had a 3.7-fold increased risk of advanced CRN compared to the low-risk group (1.1% vs. 4.0%, P < .001). The discrimination performance of the present model for high-risk patients with advanced CRN was better than that of the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score (AUC = 0.678, P < .001) and Schroy's CAN index (AUC = 0.672, P < .001).

conclusionThe present 5-item risk model can be calculated readily using a simple questionnaire and can identify the low- and high-risk groups of advanced CRN at the first screening colonoscopy. This model may increase colorectal cancer risk awareness and assist healthcare providers in encouraging the high-risk group to undergo a colonoscopy.

Indexed as

CalibrationColonoscopyColorectal NeoplasmsElectronic Health RecordsHumansMass ScreeningModels, Theoretical

Identifiers

PMID28841657
PMCPMC5571924
OpenAlexW2747326893

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.