Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28838313›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2017

Trade-off between benefits, harms and economic efficiency of low-dose CT lung cancer screening: a microsimulation analysis of nodule management strategies in a population-based setting.

Marina Treskova, Ines Aumann, Heiko Golpon, Jens Vogel-Claussen, Tobias Welte, Alexander Kuhlmann

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 50 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Natural history models for lung Cancer: A scoping review.Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025
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  17. Contemporary issues in the implementation of lung cancer screening.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Marina TreskovaCenter for Health Economics Research Hannover (CHERH), Leibniz University of Hannover, Otto-Brenner-Str.1, 30159, Hannover, Germany. mt@cherh.de.ORCID 0000-0002-3641-7225
Ines AumannCenter for Health Economics Research Hannover (CHERH), Leibniz University of Hannover, Otto-Brenner-Str.1, 30159, Hannover, Germany.
Heiko GolponBiomedical Research in Endstage and Obstructive Lung Disease Hannover (BREATH), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Hannover, Germany.
Jens Vogel-ClaussenBiomedical Research in Endstage and Obstructive Lung Disease Hannover (BREATH), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Hannover, Germany.
Tobias WelteBiomedical Research in Endstage and Obstructive Lung Disease Hannover (BREATH), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Hannover, Germany.
Alexander KuhlmannCenter for Health Economics Research Hannover (CHERH), Leibniz University of Hannover, Otto-Brenner-Str.1, 30159, Hannover, Germany.
Leibniz University Hannover · DEMedizinische Hochschule Hannover · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn lung cancer screening, a nodule management protocol describes nodule assessment and thresholds for nodule size and growth rate to identify patients who require immediate diagnostic evaluation or additional imaging exams. The Netherlands-Leuvens Screening Trial and the National Lung Screening Trial used different selection criteria and nodule management protocols. Several modelling studies have reported variations in screening outcomes and cost-effectiveness across selection criteria and screening intervals; however, the effect of variations in the nodule management protocol remains uncertain. This study evaluated the effects of the eligibility criteria and nodule management protocols on the benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of lung screening scenarios in a population-based setting in Germany.

methodsWe developed a modular microsimulation model: a biological module simulated individual histories of lung cancer development from carcinogenesis onset to death; a screening module simulated patient selection, screening-detection, nodule management protocols, diagnostic evaluation and screening outcomes. Benefits included mortality reduction, life years gained and averted lung cancer deaths. Harms were costs, false positives and overdiagnosis. The comparator was no screening. The evaluated 76 screening scenarios included variations in selection criteria and thresholds for nodule size and growth rate.

resultsFive years of annual screening resulted in a 9.7-12.8% lung cancer mortality reduction in the screened population. The efficient scenarios included volumetric assessment of nodule size, a threshold for a volume of 300 mm

conclusionsLung cancer screening can be cost-effective in Germany. Along with the eligibility criteria, the nodule management protocol influences screening performance and cost-effectiveness. Definition of the thresholds for nodule size and nodule growth in the nodule management protocol should be considered in detail when defining optimal screening strategies.

Indexed as

Tomography, X-Ray ComputedCost-Benefit AnalysisEarly Detection of CancerFemaleGermanyHumansLung NeoplasmsMaleMass ScreeningNetherlandsPatient SelectionRisk AssessmentStochastic ProcessesCost-effectivenessLDCT lung screeningLung cancerNELSONNLSTNodule management protocol

Identifiers

PMID28838313
PMCPMC5571665
OpenAlexW2745344784

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.