ArticleDiabetes care2017
Declines in the Incidence of Diabetes in the U.S.-Real Progress or Artifact?
Article in Diabetes care, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings.The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2021Pooled it
- Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2019Pooled it
- Hospital-Based Korean Diabetes Prevention Study: A Prospective, Multi-Center, Randomized, Open-Label Controlled Study.Diabetes & metabolism journal · 2019Trial
- Type 2 diabetes in Norway 2009-2021: Have declining incidence rates continued?Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026Article
- The Diabetes Prevention Program and Its Outcomes Study: NIDDK's Journey Into the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes and Its Public Health Impact.Diabetes care · 2025Review
- Long-Term Health Improvements and Economic Performance Among Individuals With Diabetes.JAMA health forum · 2025Article
- Prevalence and longitudinal effects on mortality associated with spectrum of alcohol intake in steatotic liver disease: a United States population study.Hepatobiliary surgery and nutrition · 2025Article
- Diabetes Prevalence and Incidence Inequality Trends Among U.S. Adults, 2008-2021.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Magnesium Depletion Score Predicts Diabetic Retinopathy Risk among Diabetes: Findings from NHANES 2005-2018.Biological trace element research · 2023Article
- Rising Prediabetes, Undiagnosed Diabetes, and Risk Factors in Young Women.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Impact of changes in diabetes screening guidelines on testing eligibility and potential yield among adults without diagnosed diabetes in the United States.Diabetes research and clinical practice · 2023Article
- Mortality differentials by previous diagnosis of diabetes and glycemic status in the United States.Journal of diabetes and its complications · 2022Article
- Temporally ordered associations between type 2 diabetes and brain disorders - a Danish register-based cohort study.BMC psychiatry · 2022Article
- Changes in type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality associated with introduction of HbA1c as diagnostic option: A Danish 24-year population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Are racial/ethnic minorities recently diagnosed with diabetes less likely than white individuals to receive guideline-directed diabetes preventive care?BMC health services research · 2021Article
- Article
- Thirty-Year Trends in Complications in U.S. Adults With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes.Diabetes care · 2021Article
- Risk-Based Approach for the Prediction and Prevention of Heart Failure.Circulation. Heart failure · 2021Review
- Risk factor control among Black and White adults with diabetes onset in older adulthood: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study.Preventive medicine · 2020Article
- National and State-Level Trends in Nontraumatic Lower-Extremity Amputation Among U.S. Medicare Beneficiaries With Diabetes, 2000-2017.Diabetes care · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
National surveillance data show a sustained decline in the incidence rate of diagnosed diabetes, which has been heralded as a success in the battle against diabetes in the U.S. In this Perspective, we take a closer look at these data and provide additional insights to help interpret these trends. We examine multiple sources of data on the prevalence and incidence of diabetes in the U.S. as well as data on trends in diabetes risk factors to provide context for these national surveillance findings. Although some of the incidence decline may represent real progress against diabetes, it is likely that there are also nonbiological factors at play, especially changes in diagnostic criteria for diabetes. We present and discuss data that suggest improved detection and changes in screening and diagnostic practices may have resulted in the depletion of the "susceptible population." Providing this context for the recent declines in new diabetes diagnoses observed in national data is critical to help avoid misinterpretation. We argue that it is premature to declare victory against the epidemic of diabetes in the U.S. and discuss how we might better focus current public health efforts, including a specific emphasis to address prediabetes.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.