Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28828698›Full record

ArticleJournal of neuro-oncology2017

Prediction of new brain metastases after radiosurgery: validation and analysis of performance of a multi-institutional nomogram.

Diandra N Ayala-Peacock, Albert Attia, Steve E Braunstein, Manmeet S Ahluwalia, Jaroslaw Hepel, Caroline Chung, Joseph Contessa, Emory McTyre, Ann M Peiffer, John T Lucas and 20 more

Open access · greenAbstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of neuro-oncology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 36 citations in OpenAlex.

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  12. Efficacy of salvage stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) for locally recurrent brain metastases after initial SRT and characteristics of target population.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

30 authors at 10 institutions in 2 countries.

Diandra N Ayala-PeacockDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA. diandra.n.ayala.peacock@vanderbilt.edu.
Albert AttiaDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.
Steve E BraunsteinDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Manmeet S AhluwaliaBrain Tumor and Neuro-Oncology Center, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Jaroslaw HepelDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Brown University Alpert Medical School, Providence, RI, USA.
Caroline ChungDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Center, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Joseph ContessaDepartment of Therapeutic Radiology/Radiation Oncology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Emory McTyreDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Ann M PeifferDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
John T LucasDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Scott IsomDepartment of Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Nicholas M PajewskiDepartment of Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Rupesh KotechaBrain Tumor and Neuro-Oncology Center, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Mark J StavasDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.
Brandi R PageDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Lawrence KleinbergDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Colette ShenDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Robert B TaylorDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of Alabama-Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
Nasarachi E OnyeukuDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Andrew T HydeDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of Alabama-Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
Daniel GorovetsDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Brown University Alpert Medical School, Providence, RI, USA.
Samuel T ChaoBrain Tumor and Neuro-Oncology Center, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Christopher CorsoDepartment of Therapeutic Radiology/Radiation Oncology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Jimmy RuizDepartment of Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Kounosuke WatabeDepartment of Cancer Biology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Stephen B TatterDepartment of Neurosurgery, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Gelareh ZadehDivision of Neurosurgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Veronica L S ChiangDepartment of Therapeutic Radiology/Radiation Oncology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
John B FiveashDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of Alabama-Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
Michael D ChanDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Wake Forest University · USCleveland Clinic · USJohns Hopkins University · USUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham · USYale University · USBrown University · USVanderbilt University · USPrincess Margaret Cancer Centre · CAUniversity of California, San Francisco · USUniversity of Toronto · CA

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Tumor Tissue CoreP30CA012197 · NCI · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI Ruben A. Mesa · 1985 to 2026
$55.4M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NCI NIH HHS P30 CA012197
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases can avoid WBRT toxicities, but with risk of subsequent distant brain failure (DBF). Sole use of number of metastases to triage patients may be an unrefined method. Data on 1354 patients treated with SRS monotherapy from 2000 to 2013 for new brain metastases was collected across eight academic centers. The cohort was divided into training and validation datasets and a prognostic model was developed for time to DBF. We then evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the model within the validation dataset, and confirmed its performance with an independent contemporary cohort. Number of metastases (≥8, HR 3.53 p = 0.0001), minimum margin dose (HR 1.07 p = 0.0033), and melanoma histology (HR 1.45, p = 0.0187) were associated with DBF. A prognostic index derived from the training dataset exhibited ability to discriminate patients' DBF risk within the validation dataset (c-index = 0.631) and Heller's explained relative risk (HERR) = 0.173 (SE = 0.048). Absolute number of metastases was evaluated for its ability to predict DBF in the derivation and validation datasets, and was inferior to the nomogram. A nomogram high-risk threshold yielding a 2.1-fold increased need for early WBRT was identified. Nomogram values also correlated to number of brain metastases at time of failure (r = 0.38, p < 0.0001). We present a multi-institutionally validated prognostic model and nomogram to predict risk of DBF and guide risk-stratification of patients who are appropriate candidates for radiosurgery versus upfront WBRT.

Indexed as

RadiosurgeryBrain NeoplasmsFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNomogramsRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsSurvival AnalysisBrain metastasesDistant brain failureMulti-Institutional nomogramStereotactic radiosurgery

Identifiers

PMID28828698
PMCPMC5667906
OpenAlexW2746097418

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.