ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2017
Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- HCV extinction analysis in district Gujrat, Pakistan by using SARIMA and linear regression models.Medicine · 2021Article
- Predictive analysis of the number of human brucellosis cases in Xinjiang, China.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Spatial and Temporal Analysis ofInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Time series analysis and forecasting of chlamydia trachomatis incidence using surveillance data from 2008 to 2019 in Shenzhen, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Forecasting incidence of infectious diarrhea using random forest in Jiangsu Province, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China.PloS one · 2020Article
- Development and evaluation of a deep learning approach for modeling seasonality and trends in hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in mainland China.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Observational
- Time series modeling of pertussis incidence in China from 2004 to 2018 with a novel wavelet based SARIMA-NAR hybrid model.PloS one · 2018Article
- Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)
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