Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28807188›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2017

The global burden of tuberculosis mortality in children: a mathematical modelling study.

Peter J Dodd, Courtney M Yuen, Charalambos Sismanidis, James A Seddon, Helen E Jenkins

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05989802 (Rapid Research in Diagnostics Development for Tuberculosis Network), which is not on this map. Cited by 257 papers, 14 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
257citing papers in PubMed, 14 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05989802 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Rapid Research in Diagnostics Development for Tuberculosis Network (R2D2 Kids) and Assessing Diagnostics At Point-of-care for Tuberculosis in Children (ADAPT for Kids)

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of California, San FranciscoRan2024 to 2026Enrolled2,100ConditionsTuberculosis, Diagnostics, Global HealthArmsOral swab molecular testing, Automated Cough Sound Analysis, Automated Lung Sound Analysis, Chest X Ray Computer Aided Detection
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

257 citing papers in PubMed, 14 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
  8. Pooled it
  9. Pooled it
  10. Pooled it
  11. Pooled it
  12. Pooled it
  13. Pooled it
  14. Pooled it
  15. Trial
  16. Clinical Outcomes in Children With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treated for Nonsevere Tuberculosis in the SHINE Trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Trial
  17. Trial
  18. Trial
  19. Trial
  20. Trial

197 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Peter J DoddSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. Electronic address: p.j.dodd@sheffield.ac.uk.
Courtney M YuenBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Charalambos SismanidisWorld Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
James A SeddonCentre for International Child Health, Department of Paediatrics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Helen E JenkinsBoston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of drug resistant tuberculosisK01AI102944 · NIAID · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI JENKINS, HELEN E. · 2013 to 2017
$627k
Medical Research Council MR/M007340/1NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI102944World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data.

methodsIn this mathematical modelling study, we estimated deaths in children younger than 5 years and those aged 5-14 years for 217 countries and territories using a case-fatality-based approach. We used paediatric tuberculosis notification data and HIV and antiretroviral treatment estimates to disaggregate the WHO paediatric tuberculosis incidence estimates by age, HIV, and treatment status. We then applied systematic review evidence on corresponding case-fatality ratios.

findingsWe estimated that 239 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 194 000-298 000) children younger than 15 years died from tuberculosis worldwide in 2015; 80% (191 000, 95% UI 132 000-257 000) of these deaths were in children younger than 5 years. More than 70% (182 000, 140 000-239 000) of deaths occurred in the WHO southeast Asia and Africa regions. We estimated that 39 000 (17%, 23 000-73 000) paediatric tuberculosis deaths worldwide were in children with HIV infections, with 31 000 (36%, 19 000-59 000) in the WHO Africa region. More than 96% (230 000, 185 000-289 000) of all tuberculosis deaths occurred in children not receiving tuberculosis treatment.

interpretationTuberculosis is a top ten cause of death in children worldwide and a key omission from previous analyses of under-5 mortality. Almost all these deaths occur in children not on tuberculosis treatment, implying substantial scope to reduce this burden.

fundingUNITAID, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute for Health Research.

Indexed as

Child MortalityCost of IllnessAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolGlobal HealthHumansInfantInfant, NewbornModels, TheoreticalTuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID28807188
PMCPMC5556253

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.