Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28792935›Full record

ArticleNature2017

Mutation predicts 40 million years of fly wing evolution.

David Houle, Geir H Bolstad, Kim van der Linde, Thomas F Hansen

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
67citing papers in PubMed
12.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

67 citing papers in PubMed, 237 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Persistent selection on size explains micro- and macroevolutionary alignments in fly wings.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. A century of theories of balancing selection.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2026
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Bridging developmental and statistical approaches to variation and evolution.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Evolution of developmental bias explains divergent patterns of phenotypic evolution in two nematode clades.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Utilizing developmental dynamics for evolutionary prediction and control.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article

7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

David HouleDepartment of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA.
Geir H BolstadDepartment of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA.
Kim van der LindeDepartment of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA.
Thomas F HansenDepartment of Biology, CEES &EVOGENE, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Florida State University · USUniversity of Oslo · NO

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mutation enables evolution, but the idea that adaptation is also shaped by mutational variation is controversial. Simple evolutionary hypotheses predict such a relationship if the supply of mutations constrains evolution, but it is not clear that constraints exist, and, even if they do, they may be overcome by long-term natural selection. Quantification of the relationship between mutation and phenotypic divergence among species will help to resolve these issues. Here we use precise data on over 50,000 Drosophilid fly wings to demonstrate unexpectedly strong positive relationships between variation produced by mutation, standing genetic variation, and the rate of evolution over the last 40 million years. Our results are inconsistent with simple constraint hypotheses because the rate of evolution is very low relative to what both mutational and standing variation could allow. In principle, the constraint hypothesis could be rescued if the vast majority of mutations are so deleterious that they cannot contribute to evolution, but this also requires the implausible assumption that deleterious mutations have the same pattern of effects as potentially advantageous ones. Our evidence for a strong relationship between mutation and divergence in a slowly evolving structure challenges the existing models of mutation in evolution.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionModels, GeneticMutationAnimalsDipteraDrosophilaFemaleMaleOrgan SizePhenotypePhylogenySelection, GeneticSex CharacteristicsWings, Animal

Identifiers

PMID28792935
OpenAlexW2745012322

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.