Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28791547›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical systems2017

Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods.

J Ignacio Hidalgo, J Manuel Colmenar, Gabriel Kronberger, Stephan M Winkler, Oscar Garnica, Juan Lanchares

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical systems, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

J Ignacio HidalgoAdaptive and Bioinspired System Group, School of Informatics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/ Profesor José García Santesmases 9, 28040, Madrid, Spain. hidalgo@ucm.es.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3046-6368
J Manuel ColmenarUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos, C/ Tulipán s/n, 28933, Móstoles, Spain.
Gabriel KronbergerHeuristic and Evolutionary Algorithms Laboratory, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria, Softwarepark 11, 4232, Hagenberg, Austria.
Stephan M WinklerHeuristic and Evolutionary Algorithms Laboratory, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria, Softwarepark 11, 4232, Hagenberg, Austria.
Oscar GarnicaAdaptive and Bioinspired System Group, School of Informatics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/ Profesor José García Santesmases 9, 28040, Madrid, Spain.
Juan LancharesAdaptive and Bioinspired System Group, School of Informatics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/ Profesor José García Santesmases 9, 28040, Madrid, Spain.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsArtificial IntelligenceBlood GlucoseDiabetes Mellitus, Type 1HumansInsulinSpainBlood GlucoseInsulinContinuos glucose monitoringDiabetesEvolutionary computationGlucose prediction

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.