ArticleScientific reports2017
Dynamics of the Global Wheat Trade Network and Resilience to Shocks.
Article in Scientific reports, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evolution and Vulnerability of the Global Ready-to-Eat Aquatic Products Trade Network: A Complex Network Analysis.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Trade-offs between resilience, sustainability and cost in the US agri-food transportation infrastructure.Nature food · 2025Article
- Unpacking the Global Rice Trade Network: Centrality, Structural Holes, and the Nexus of Food Insecurity.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Article
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- Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability.Nature food · 2023Article
- Uncertainty in vulnerability of networks under attack.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Evolution of global food trade network and its effects on population nutritional status.Current research in food science · 2023Article
- Characterizing the Structural Evolution of Cereal Trade Networks in the Belt and Road Regions: A Network Analysis Approach.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Role of trade agreements in the global cereal market and implications for virtual water flows.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Insights into countries' exposure and vulnerability to food trade shocks from network-based simulations.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Connected and extracted: Understanding how centrality in the global wheat supply chain affects global hunger using a network approach.PloS one · 2022Article
- Evolution of Global Food Trade Patterns and Its Implications for Food Security Based on Complex Network Analysis.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Microstructural Characteristics of the Weighted and Directed International Crop Trade Networks.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks.Nature food · 2021Article
- Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network.Food security · 2021Article
- The effects of network topology, climate variability and shocks on the evolution and resilience of a food trade network.PloS one · 2019Article
- Time dynamics and invariant subnetwork structures in the world cereals trade network.PloS one · 2019Article
- Liquid Chromatography Analysis of Common Nutritional Components, in Feed and Food.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Agri-food trade networks are increasingly vital to human well-being in a globalising world. Models can help us gain insights into trade network dynamics and predict how they might respond to future disturbances such as extreme weather events. Here we develop a preferential attachment (PA) network model of the global wheat trade network. We find that the PA model can replicate the time evolution of crucial wheat trade network metrics from 1986 to 2011. We use the calibrated PA model to predict the response of wheat trade network metrics to shocks of differing length and severity, including both attacks (outward edge removal on high degree nodes) and errors (outward edge removal on randomly selected nodes). We predict that the network will become less vulnerable to attacks but will continue to exhibit low resilience until 2050. Even short-term shocks strongly increase link diversity and cause long-term structural changes that influence the network's response to subsequent shocks. Attacks have a greater impact than errors. However, with repeated attacks, each attack has a lesser impact than the previous attack. We conclude that dynamic models of multi-annual, commodity-specific networks should be further developed to gain insight into possible futures of global agri-food trade networks.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.