Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28774193›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of psychiatry2017

Declining Clinical Course of Psychotic Disorders Over the Two Decades Following First Hospitalization: Evidence From the Suffolk County Mental Health Project.

Roman Kotov, Laura Fochtmann, Kaiqiao Li, Marsha Tanenberg-Karant, Eduardo A Constantino, Joan Rubinstein, Greg Perlman, Eva Velthorst, Anne-Kathrin J Fett, Gabrielle Carlson and 1 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of psychiatry, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
8.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 97 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Trial
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  6. Auditory event-related potentials and psychosis dimensions.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026
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  16. Inferring Trajectories of Psychotic Disorders Using Dynamic Causal Modeling.Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Roman KotovFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Laura FochtmannFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Kaiqiao LiFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Marsha Tanenberg-KarantFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Eduardo A ConstantinoFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Joan RubinsteinFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Greg PerlmanFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Eva VelthorstFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Anne-Kathrin J FettFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Gabrielle CarlsonFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
Evelyn J BrometFrom the Department of Psychiatry, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N.Y.; the Department of Psychiatry and the Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York; the Department of Educational Neuroscience and Research Institute LEARN, Faculty of Psychology and Education, VU University, Amsterdam; and the Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London.
City, University of London · GBKing's College London · GBStony Brook University · US

Funding

THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF NEWLY DIAGNOSED PSYCHOTIC DISORDERSR01MH044801 · NIMH · STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK · PI BROMET, EVELYN J · 1989 to 2007
$5.0M
Trajectories of Aging in Psychotic Disorders Over 27 YearsR01MH110434 · NIMH · STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK · PI KOTOV, ROMAN I · 2016 to 2020
$4.5M
Trajectories of recovery from psychosis over two decadesR01MH094398 · NIMH · STATE UNIVERSITY NEW YORK STONY BROOK · PI KOTOV, ROMAN I · 2011 to 2013
$2.2M
NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH044801NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH094398NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH110434
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveKraepelin considered declining course a hallmark of schizophrenia, but others have suggested that outcomes usually stabilize or improve after treatment initiation. The authors investigated this question in an epidemiologically defined cohort with psychotic disorders followed for 20 years after first hospitalization.

methodThe Suffolk County Mental Health Project recruited first-admission patients with psychosis from all inpatient units of Suffolk County, New York (response rate, 72%). Participants were assessed in person six times over two decades; 373 completed the 20-year follow-up (68% of survivors); 175 had schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder. Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), psychotic symptoms, and mood symptoms were rated at each assessment. Month 6, when nearly all participants were discharged from the index hospitalization, was used as a reference.

resultsIn the schizophrenia group, mean GAF scores declined from 49 at month 6 to 36 at year 20. Negative and positive symptoms also worsened (Cohen's d values, 0.45-0.73). Among participants without schizophrenia, GAF scores were higher initially (a mean of approximately 64) but declined by 9 points over the follow-up period. Worsening began between years 5 and 8. Neither aging nor changes in antipsychotic treatment accounted for the declines. In all disorders, depression improved and manic symptoms remained low across the 20 years.

conclusionsThe authors found substantial symptom burden across disorders that increased with time and ultimately may undo initial treatment gains. Previous studies have suggested that better health care delivery models may preempt this decline. In the United States, these care needs are often not met, and addressing them is an urgent priority.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionSchizophreniaSchizophrenic PsychologyAdolescentAdultBipolar DisorderDepressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHospitalizationHumansMajor Depressive DisorderMaleMiddle AgedNew YorkProspective StudiesBipolar Disorder LongitudinalEpidemiologyFirst EpisodeOutcome StudiesPsychosis

Identifiers

PMID28774193
PMCPMC5767161
OpenAlexW2742259940

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.