Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28759845›Full record

ArticleJournal of psychiatric research2017

A comprehensive model of predictors of persistence and recurrence in adults with major depression: Results from a national 3-year prospective study.

Nicolas Hoertel, Carlos Blanco, Maria A Oquendo, Melanie M Wall, Mark Olfson, Bruno Falissard, Silvia Franco, Hugo Peyre, Cédric Lemogne, Frédéric Limosin

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of psychiatric research, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
5.1field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 60 citations in OpenAlex.

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  7. Modeling effect: How treatment intensity and duration impact depression recurrence.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Nicolas HoertelDepartment of Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA; Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (APHP), Corentin Celton Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux, France; Paris Descartes University, PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; INSERM UMR 894, Psychiatry and Neurosciences Center, France. Electronic address: nico.hoertel@yahoo.fr.
Carlos BlancoDivision of Epidemiology, Services, and Prevention Research, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Maria A OquendoDepartment of Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Melanie M WallDepartment of Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Mark OlfsonDepartment of Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Bruno FalissardCentre de Recherche en Epidemiologie et Santé des Populations (CESP), Paris-Saclay University, Paris-Sud University, UVSQ, INSERM, APHP, Paris, France.
Silvia FrancoDepartment of Psychiatry, New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Hugo PeyreAssistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (APHP), Robert-Debré Hospital, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Department, Paris, France.
Cédric LemogneAssistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (APHP), Corentin Celton Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux, France; Paris Descartes University, PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
Frédéric LimosinAssistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (APHP), Corentin Celton Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux, France; Paris Descartes University, PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
New York Psychoanalytic Society and Institute · USAssistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris · FRColumbia University · USHôpital Corentin-Celton · FRNational Institute on Drug Abuse · USSorbonne Paris Cité · FRUniversité Paris-Sud · FR

Funding

Improving the Effectiveness of Treatment for Depression in HispanicsR01MH076051 · NIMH · NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC · PI BLANCO, CARLOS · 2008 to 2012
$2.8M
2/2 Gambling Addiction: Treatment Mediators and ModeratorsR01MH082773 · NIMH · NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC · PI BLANCO, CARLOS · 2009 to 2012
$1.6M
NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH076051NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH082773
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Identifying predictors of persistence and recurrence of depression in individuals with a major depressive episode (MDE) poses a critical challenge for clinicians and researchers. We develop using a nationally representative sample, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC; N = 34,653), a comprehensive model of the 3-year risk of persistence and recurrence in individuals with MDE at baseline. We used structural equation modeling to examine simultaneously the effects of four broad groups of clinical factors on the risk of MDE persistence and recurrence: 1) severity of depressive illness, 2) severity of mental and physical comorbidity, 3) sociodemographic characteristics and 4) treatment-seeking behavior. Approximately 16% and 21% of the 2587 participants with an MDE at baseline had a persistent MDE and a new MDE during the 3-year follow-up period, respectively. Most independent predictors were common for both persistence and recurrence and included markers for the severity of the depressive illness at baseline (as measured by higher levels on the general depressive symptom dimension, lower mental component summary scores, prior suicide attempts, younger age at onset of depression and greater number of MDEs), the severity of comorbidities (as measured by higher levels on dimensions of psychopathology and lower physical component summary scores) and a failure to seek treatment for MDE at baseline. This population-based model highlights strategies that may improve the course of MDE, including the need to develop interventions that target multiple psychiatric disorders and promotion of treatment seeking to increase access to timely mental health care.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionSeverity of Illness IndexAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overComorbidityFemaleHealth SurveysHumansMajor Depressive DisorderMaleMental DisordersMiddle AgedPatient Acceptance of Health CarePrognosisCourseDepressionDepressive disorderPersistenceRecurrenceRelapse

Identifiers

PMID28759845
PMCPMC5653405
OpenAlexW2738442045

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.