ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2017
The value of explicitly emulating a target trial when using real world evidence: an application to colorectal cancer screening.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
91 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Conducting observational analyses with the target trial emulation approach: a methodological systematic review.BMJ open · 2024Pooled it
- Improving rheumatoid arthritis comparative effectiveness research through causal inference principles: systematic review using a target trial emulation framework.Annals of the rheumatic diseases · 2020Pooled it
- Target trial on the outcomes of laparoscopic compared to robotic-assisted proctectomy in stage II-III rectal cancer.Updates in surgery · 2026Trial
- Effectiveness of treat-to-target cholesterol-lowering interventions on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality risk in the community-dwelling population: a target trial emulation.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Lumpectomy and Mastectomy for Elderly Female Breast Cancer Patients: A Deep Learning-based Big Data Analysis.The Yale journal of biology and medicine · 2023Trial
- Target trial emulation to assess real-world efficacy in the Epidemiological Strategy and Medical Economics metastatic breast cancer cohort.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2023Trial
- Effect of first-line biologic initiation on glucocorticoid exposure in children hospitalized with new-onset systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis: emulation of a pragmatic trial using observational data.Pediatric rheumatology online journal · 2021Trial
- Target trial emulation studies in oncology: a comprehensive analysis.The oncologist · 2026Article
- Long-Term Outcomes After Cervical Cold Knife Conization or Loop Electrosurgical Excision Procedure.JAMA surgery · 2026Article
- Pregnancy identification method as a source of bias in studies of prenatal exposures using real-world data.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Studying When to Add Biological Therapy to Cytotoxic Therapy in Advanced Cancer Care Using Real World Data: How to Avoid Design Choices That Generate Immortal Time.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Prompt and Intensive Antiviral Chemoprophylaxis in Nursing Home Influenza Outbreaks.JAMA internal medicine · 2026Article
- Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment for Hepatitis C Virus Infection in People With HIV.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- The Ideal Trial: Defining Causal Estimands that Balance Relevance and Feasibility in Target Trial Emulations and Actual Randomized Trials.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2026Review
- Long-term effect of discontinuing anticholinesterase treatment on cognitive decline and mortality in Alzheimer's disease in France: a quasi-experiment and target trial emulation study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2026Article
- Emulation of a Target Trial of Antihypertensive Medications on Weight Change.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Observational
- Effectiveness of Indapamide Prolonged-Release and Perindopril Versus Perindopril Monotherapy for Treated Uncontrolled Hypertension: A Target Trial Emulation.Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety · 2026Observational
- Parental care in adolescence and women's later postpartum psychosocial wellbeing: a 20-year prospective preconception cohort study.Archives of women's mental health · 2026Article
- Adverse Drug Events Associated with Opioid Treatment for Pain After Motor Vehicle Crash.Journal of pain research · 2026Article
- Can Prostate Cancer Screening Reduce Mortality in Men Aged 75-79 Years? A Protocol for Target-trial Emulation.European urology open science · 2025Article
31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Observational analyses for causal inference often rely on real world data collected for purposes other than research. A frequent goal of these observational analyses is to use the data to emulate a hypothetical randomized experiment, i.e., the target trial, that mimics the design features of a true experiment, including a clear definition of time zero with synchronization of treatment assignment and determination of eligibility. We review a recent observational analysis that explicitly emulated a target trial of screening colonoscopy using insurance claims from U.S. Medicare. We then compare this explicit emulation with alternative, simpler observational analyses that do not synchronize treatment assignment and eligibility determination at time zero and/or do not allow for repeated eligibility. This empirical comparison suggests that lack of an explicit emulation of the target trial leads to biased estimates, and shows that allowing for repeated eligibility increases the statistical efficiency of the estimates.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.