Evidence map›Paper›PMID 28747901›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in microbiology2017

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Ángel G Muñoz, Madeleine C Thomson, Anna M Stewart-Ibarra, Gabriel A Vecchi, Xandre Chourio, Patricia Nájera, Zelda Moran, Xiaosong Yang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in microbiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
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  10. Review
  11. Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases.Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · 2019
    Review
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018
    Article
  15. The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018
    Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Ángel G MuñozAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States.
Madeleine C ThomsonInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States.
Anna M Stewart-IbarraCenter for Global Health and Translational Science and Department of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical UniversitySyracuse, NY, United States.
Gabriel A VecchiAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States.
Xandre ChourioLatin American Observatory for Climate Events, Centro de Modelado Científico, Universidad del ZuliaMaracaibo, Venezuela.
Patricia NájeraInternational Health Regulations/Epidemic Alert and Response, and Water Borne Diseases, Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis Department, Pan American Health OrganizationWashington, DC, United States.
Zelda MoranMailman School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States.
Xiaosong YangGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic

Indexed as

Aedes-borne diseaseschikungunyaclimatedenguepredictabilityR0 modelzika

Identifiers

PMID28747901
PMCPMC5506221

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.