ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2017
Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Pooled it
- Cholera rages in Africa and the Middle East: A narrative review on challenges and solutions.Health science reports · 2024Review
- A Well-Posed Fractional Order Cholera Model with Saturated Incidence Rate.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Signatures of Cholera Outbreak during the Yemeni Civil War, 2016-2019.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A Review of the Environmental Trigger and Transmission Components for Prediction of Cholera.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2021Review
- DYNAMICS OF CHOLERA EPIDEMIC MODELS IN FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTS.Stochastics and dynamics · 2021Article
- A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen.Advances in difference equations · 2021Article
- Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.Frontiers of medicine · 2019Review
- Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2019Article
- Modeling the elevated risk of yellow fever among travelers visiting Brazil, 2018.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2018Article
- Emerging infections-an increasingly important topic: review by the Emerging Infections Task Force.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2018Review
- Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA large epidemic of cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa, has been ongoing in Yemen, 2017. To improve the situation awareness, the present study aimed to forecast the cholera epidemic, explicitly addressing the reporting delay and ascertainment bias.
methodsUsing weekly incidence of suspected cases, updated as a revised epidemic curve every week, the reporting delay was explicitly incorporated into the estimation model. Using the weekly case fatality risk as calculated by the World Health Organization, ascertainment bias was adjusted, enabling us to parameterize the family of logistic curves (i.e., logistic and generalized logistic models) for describing the unbiased incidence in 2017.
resultsThe cumulative incidence at the end of the epidemic, was estimated at 790,778 (95% CI: 700,495, 914,442) cases and 767,029 (95% CI: 690,877, 871,671) cases, respectively, by using logistic and generalized logistic models. It was also estimated that we have just passed through the epidemic peak by week 26, 2017. From week 27 onwards, the weekly incidence was predicted to decrease.
conclusionsCholera epidemic in Yemen, 2017 was predicted to soon start to decrease. If the weekly incidence is reported in the up-to-the-minute manner and updated in later weeks, not a single data point but the entire epidemic curve must be precisely updated.
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