ArticlePloS one2017
Predicting the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, using a structural equation model.
Article in PloS one, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Host diversity and landscape structure drive genospecies-specific Lyme disease risk across Eurasia.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Identification and mapping of potential and highly likely vectors for selected vector-borne diseases in the EU and neighbouring countries.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2026Article
- Citizen Science Tick Observations Serve as an Early Warning System for Tick-Borne Diseases.Zoonoses and public health · 2026Article
- Post-Exposure Prophylaxis Prescribing Practices in a Lyme Disease-Endemic Area.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Patient roadmap and economic burden of chronic tick-borne illness and post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome in Ireland, and public health issues arising.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Incidence of Lyme borreliosis following Ixodes ricinus tick bites in Poland: a citizen science approach.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Article
- Thermographic Assessment of Lyme Borreliosis Without Erythema Migrans.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- Clinical characteristics and serological profiles of Lyme disease in children: a 15-year retrospective cohort study in Switzerland.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- The AxBioTick study - immune gene expression signatures in human skin bitten by Borrelia-infected versus non-infected ticks.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Assessment of occupational exposure of soldiers to Lyme disease and Borrelia miyamotoi disease in selected military training areas from northern Poland.Experimental & applied acarology · 2024Article
- Twenty Years of Lyme Borreliosis in the Netherlands: Temporal Trends in Seroprevalence and Risk Factors.Microorganisms · 2024Article
- The first molecular record ofPathogens and global health · 2024Article
- Behavioral and cognitive factors influencing tick-borne disease risk in northeast China: Implications for prevention and control strategies.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Coinfection ofPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Spatial and temporal variation of five different pathogens and symbionts inCurrent research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Lyme Borreliosis in The Netherlands: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.Microorganisms · 2023Article
- Spatial and seasonal determinants of Lyme borreliosis incidence in France, 2016 to 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUnderstanding and quantification of the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can aid development of prevention strategies against Lyme borreliosis.
methodsWe used 3,525 single tick bite reports from three large prospective studies on the transmission risk of tick-borne pathogens to humans, with 50 reports of Lyme borreliosis during the follow-up period, among 1,973 reports with known outcome. A structural equation model was applied to estimate the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, and quantify the influence of: developmental stage of the tick, detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick by PCR, tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and patient age.
resultsThe overall risk of developing Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite was 2.6% (95%CI 1.4-5.1). The risk increased with: - Tick engorgement: 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.3%) for low engorgement to 5.5% (95%CI 2.8%-9.2%) for substantially engorged ticks;- Rising patient-estimated tick attachment duration: 2.0% (95%CI 1.3%-2.8%) after <12 hours, to 5.2% (95%CI 3.0%-8.9%) after ≥4 days;- Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ticks: 6.7% (95%CI 3.6%-13.5%), versus 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.9%) when ticks tested negative.The highest observed risk of Lyme borreliosis was 14.4% (95%CI 6.8%-24.6%) after one tick bite of a substantially engorged tick that tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA, which corresponds to one new case of Lyme borreliosis per 7 (95%CI 4-15) of such tick bites.
conclusionsAn individual's risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can be predicted with tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick.
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