ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2017
Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Oral nutritional interventions in frail older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition: a systematic review.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2022Pooled it
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- Delaying and reversing frailty: a systematic review of primary care interventions.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2019Pooled it
- Post-war (1946-2017) population health change in the United Kingdom: A systematic review.PloS one · 2019Pooled it
- Feasibility Trial Evaluation of a Peer Volunteering Active Aging Intervention: ACE (Active, Connected, Engaged).The Gerontologist · 2020Trial
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- Evaluating changes in the well-being of older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal cohort study.European journal of public health · 2024Article
- Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Exploring age-related changes in motor function: insights from the peak decline found in Koji Awareness screening test.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impact of Wii Fit Training (WFT) and Reactive Balance Training (RBT) for in Elder Age Population: A Comparative Analysis.Journal of pharmacy & bioallied sciences · 2024Article
- Electronic Health Literacy Among Baby Boomers: A Typology.Health literacy research and practice · 2024Article
- Short of capacity? Why the government must address the capacity constraints in the English National Health Service.Health affairs scholar · 2024Article
- Disability from cardiovascular diseases at Osh city, Kyrgyz Republic.Bioinformation · 2024Article
- Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Article
- Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2023Article
- Depression Earlier on in Life Predicts Frailty at 50 Years: Evidence from the 1958 British Birth Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundReliable estimation of future trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability is crucial for ageing societies. Previous forecasts have not considered the potential impact of trends in disease incidence. The present prediction model combines population trends in cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability in England and Wales up to 2025.
methodsWe developed and validated the IMPACT-Better Ageing Model-a probabilistic model that tracks the population aged 35-100 years through ten health states characterised by the presence or absence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability (difficulty with one or more activities of daily living) or death up to 2025, by use of evidence-based age-specific, sex-specific, and year-specific transition probabilities. As shown in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we projected continuing declines in dementia incidence (2·7% per annum), cardiovascular incidence, and mortality. The model estimates disability prevalence and disabled and disability-free life expectancy by year.
findingsBetween 2015 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 years and older will increase by 19·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17·7-20·9), from 10·4 million (10·37-10·41 million) to 12·4 million (12·23-12·57 million). The number living with disability will increase by 25·0% (95% UI 21·3-28·2), from 2·25 million (2·24-2·27 million) to 2·81 million (2·72-2·89 million). The age-standardised prevalence of disability among this population will remain constant, at 21·7% (95% UI 21·5-21·8) in 2015 and 21·6% (21·3-21·8) in 2025. Total life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·7 years (95% UI 0·1-3·6), from 20·1 years (19·9-20·3) to 21·8 years (20·2-23·6). Disability-free life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·0 years (95% UI 0·1-1·9), from 15·4 years (15·3-15·5) to 16·4 years (15·5-17·3). However, life expectancy with disability will increase more in relative terms, with an increase of roughly 15% from 2015 (4·7 years, 95% UI 4·6-4·8) to 2025 (5·4 years, 4·7-6·4).
interpretationThe number of older people with care needs will expand by 25% by 2025, mainly reflecting population ageing rather than an increase in prevalence of disability. Lifespans will increase further in the next decade, but a quarter of life expectancy at age 65 years will involve disability.
fundingBritish Heart Foundation.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.