ArticlePLoS currents2017
Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak.
Article in PLoS currents, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrating Wind Speed Into Climate-Based West Nile Virus Models: A Comparative Analysis in Two Distinct Regions.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in northern greece, 2020-2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impacts of Urbanization and Habitat Characteristics on the Human Risk of West Nile Disease in the United States.Biology · 2025Article
- Schmallenberg virus epidemiology and regional control strategies: diagnostics, vaccines, and vector management.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Review
- Short-term effect of temperature and precipitation on the incidence of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease in Europe: a multi-country case-crossover analysis.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017-2022 using a zero-inflated model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Broadscale spatial synchrony in a West Nile virus mosquito vector across multiple timescales.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- The Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) system for West Nile virus forecasting.JAMIA open · 2024Article
- A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America.Environmental health perspectives · 2022Article
- Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- MOSQUITO EDGE: An Edge-Intelligent Real-Time Mosquito Threat Prediction Using an IoT-Enabled Hardware System.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Analysis of West Nile Virus Epidemic in South Banat District, Serbia, 2017-2019.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Article
- A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Review
- Fighting mosquito bite during a crisis: capabilities of Florida mosquito control districts during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Article
- Epidemic West Nile Virus Infection Rates and Endemic Population Dynamics Among South Dakota Mosquitoes: A 15-yr Study from the United States Northern Great Plains.Journal of medical entomology · 2020Article
- A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- A framework for evaluating the effects of observational type and quality on vector-borne disease forecast.Epidemics · 2020Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionPredicting the timing and locations of future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks has the potential to improve the targeting of mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. Here, we present and evaluate prospective forecasts made prior to and during the 2016 West Nile virus (WNV) season in South Dakota, a hotspot for human WNV transmission in the United States.
methodsWe used a county-level logistic regression model to predict the weekly probability of human WNV case occurrence as a function of temperature, precipitation, and an index of mosquito infection status. The model was specified and fitted using historical data from 2004-2015 and was applied in 2016 to make short-term forecasts of human WNV cases in the upcoming week as well as whole-year forecasts of WNV cases throughout the entire transmission season. These predictions were evaluated at the end of the 2016 WNV season by comparing them with spatial and temporal patterns of the human cases that occurred.
resultsThere was an outbreak of WNV in 2016, with a total of 167 human cases compared to only 40 in 2015. Model results were generally accurate, with an AUC of 0.856 for short-term predictions. Early-season temperature data were sufficient to predict an earlier-than-normal start to the WNV season and an above-average number of cases, but underestimated the overall case burden. Model predictions improved throughout the season as more mosquito infection data were obtained, and by the end of July the model provided a close estimate of the overall magnitude of the outbreak.
conclusionsAn integrated model that included meteorological variables as well as a mosquito infection index as predictor variables accurately predicted the resurgence of WNV in South Dakota in 2016. Key areas for future research include refining the model to improve predictive skill and developing strategies to link forecasts with specific mosquito control and disease prevention activities.
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Registered trials
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